In no particular order, here are a few things to watch for in 2013:
1. More talk of integration between USN/USMC. Driven primarily by the USMC's "Single Naval Battle" concept, 2013 will feature discussions of integration (rather than cooperation or interoperability) at the organizational, administrative, and operational levels. Faster please.
2. Nuclear-ization of Navy Leadership. The CNO is now into his second full year, and his team is firmly in place. Notable has been his advocacy of nuclear trained officers to leadership positions in the Navy and the Joint community. I don't think this is an accident--my sense is that he is comfortable with others around him who have been trained to solve problems in a proven and familiar way. Rosy narratives, complex power-points and fast talk will not satisfy a man driven by objective quality evidence. The bar is high, and subordinates/subordinate commanders need take note.
3. Even more emphasis on Seapower. The Administration has cast its lot with Seapower. Land forces will draw down, while more load is shouldered by the Navy. The primary method of favoring Seapower will be to cut it less than other capabilities, rather than any substantial increase in resources. This will be countered to some extent, by #4.
4. New Leadership in HASC Seapower and Projection Forces. I expect Randy Forbes (R, VA) to be an activist HASC Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee Chairman. He will ask very hard questions of Department of the Navy leadership, he will hold their feet to the fire, and he will tell it like it is. But he will also be a friend to a larger--but more efficient--Navy. My sense is that while Forbes is obviously interested in things Naval by virtue of his district, his interests are more deep and strategic. We will have an intellect running this subcommittee, the first in some time.
5. Focus on the Air Wing. The obsolescence of the carrier conversation will never die, but it will largely be subsumed by the more important (and strategically relevant) conversation about the future air wing....long range strike, unmanned, and sea control capabilities will all loom large in this discussion.
What others do you see?
Bryan McGrath
Monday, December 31, 2024
Sunday, December 30, 2024
Gates of Tears in Fiction
During 2012, the U.S. and allied navies continued non-stop operations in the Gulf of Aden, the Somali Basin, and the Arabian sea. Although Somali piracy precipitously declined, al Shabaab was on the run, and the pressure was turned up on AQAP, ongoing operational requirements drove more record length U.S. Navy deployments in the area. Many of these operations were well known but some remained outside of the public view. Late last year, I reviewed Camille Pecastaing's interesting expose on the geostrategic challenges in and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This year, I was drawn to another book about the same region.
I'm not normally a big fiction reader, but if like me, you can only cram in a bit of escapist reading every now and then, next year make it Claude Berube's
debut novel, The Aden Effect. The book combines a mix of Beltway intrigue, clever law enforcement work, and high seas action into a suprisingly prescient yarn.
Amongst the various plotlines of ambassadors under attack by terrorists, duplicitous politicians, and pirates run amok, one passage in particular could have been ripped straight out of recent congressional hearings: "If they're so concerned though, why is the embassy understaffed?... No spooks. No regional security officer --how can an embassy operate without an RSO?-- only half the number of Marines you'd expect, and no other military staff at all."
For those more versed in naval and counterterrorism operations who like to nit-pick operational details (like me), I'd suggest you follow Claude's admonishment in the post-script to "suspend some disbelief" and just enjoy a good read. Happy New Year.
The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.
I'm not normally a big fiction reader, but if like me, you can only cram in a bit of escapist reading every now and then, next year make it Claude Berube's
debut novel, The Aden Effect. The book combines a mix of Beltway intrigue, clever law enforcement work, and high seas action into a suprisingly prescient yarn.
Amongst the various plotlines of ambassadors under attack by terrorists, duplicitous politicians, and pirates run amok, one passage in particular could have been ripped straight out of recent congressional hearings: "If they're so concerned though, why is the embassy understaffed?... No spooks. No regional security officer --how can an embassy operate without an RSO?-- only half the number of Marines you'd expect, and no other military staff at all."For those more versed in naval and counterterrorism operations who like to nit-pick operational details (like me), I'd suggest you follow Claude's admonishment in the post-script to "suspend some disbelief" and just enjoy a good read. Happy New Year.
The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.
Friday, December 28, 2024
2012 in Review
2012 was an interesting year to look back on for PLAN and PLAAF. We saw the commissioning of No. 16 Liaoning carrier, the launching of the new 052D class destroyers, the first flight of J-31 fighter jet and what appears to be taxi-run and impending first flight of Y-20 strategic transport. Here are what I think are the 10 biggest story of 2012.
1. The Aircraft Carrier project:
Many of the PLAN followers have waited for the commissioning and the first flight off Liaoning for over 7 years. Since 2005 when ex-Varyag was first moved into Dalian shipyard dry docks for extensive work and painting of PLAN colours, internet forums have been buzzing with questions about when/if this ship will ever join service. The negotiation for 50 Su-33 and the application of the non-skid layer in 2006 further moved us to think that this ship will join service. However, what appeared to be extensive period of inaction in 2007 and 2008 made us question some of those thoughts. When it was moved to dry docks again in 2009, it appeared just a matter of time before this ship will enter service. Much of the outfitting of sensors and self-defense weapons were installed in 2010 to 2011. We even saw a replica of Liaoning in Wuhan. The sea trials for Liaoning started in August of 2011 and it officially joined service on September 24th of this year after 10 sea trials. We did not find out until later, but numerous touch-n-go had already been completed on this ship by that point. The monumental first take-off and landing with J-15 naval aircraft off Liaoning was completed by Nov 20th. More of the photographed take-off and landings of multiple J-15s were accomplished on Nov 23rd. All in all, this marked the completion of the first stage of the carrier project. Now, China begins the long process of developing a fully operational carrier group with its own naval aviation doctrines.
2. Emergence of type 052D class DDG:
While the wait for this was not nearly as long, many PLAN followers have been waiting since at least 2008 for an improved surface combatant to the 052C class. The relocation of JiangNan shipyard and indigenization of DA80/DN80 gas turbine (QC-280) delayed the production of follow-on units for several years. By late 2010, the 3rd unit of the 052C class was launched at the new JN shipyard. Many PLAN followers were disappointed over the fact that the new 052C had no visible external changes compared to the first two 052C. Over the next year or so, 3 more 052Cs were launched in JN shipyard. They are all in various stages of sea trials and fitting out at the moment. By August of this year, we had the long awaited launching of the much anticipated 052D class. As discussed in previous blog entries, 052D class is fitted with an entirely new generation of air defence and combat system. In addition, we saw the introduction of the Chinese version of MK-41 VLS that can launch different types of missiles and fit multiple missiles per launch cell. When we compared the overhead shot of 052D vs 052C, it appears that the size of the ships did not change much, but the new VLS and other weaponry have allowed more capabilities to be packed in the same hull. It appears that at least 4 052D are planned at the moment. Whether or not we will see more of this class depends on the development of PLAN's next generation of large surface combatants. 052D class is not only important in its much improved combat power versus the 052C class, but it's also very important in testing out this new generation of sensors and weapon systems that will likely be used by future surface combatants of different sizes. One thing to look forward to is the different missiles that will be developed and fitted into the new VLS. Another thing to look forward to is whether this will just be an interim class of 4 ships before a new series of surface combatant comes along or will this be part of a much larger part of PLAN's future.
3. Appearance of Y-20 transport:
This is still a very recent story, so its importance has not really been explored much. One only has to look at all the delayed PLAAF programs to see how important this project is. The strategic lift has been so lacking that China have recently been forced to purchase refurbished second hand IL-76s from Russia. At this point, the IL-76 imported in the early 90s may not have much service life left. At the same time, PLAAF currently only operated 4 KJ-2000 AEWC&C, because PLAAF does not have enough remaining IL-76 units. Other projects that would need something like Y-20 include aerial refueling tanker, ABL, next generation AEWC&C and various other special missions project. The successful induction and mass production of this aircraft would provide a huge leap in PLAAF's force projection capabilities. I put this ahead of J-31, because Y-20 would contribute more to PLAAF's desires to transform from an air denial force to air dominance more than any other project. From this point on, it will be interesting to see how fast Y-20 can join services. As shown with other projects like A400M and C-2, a lot of delays can happen in the development of large military transport.
4. Appearance and first flight of J-31 fighter jet:
The appearance of China's second 5th generation project caused a lot of uproar back in September. It had been speculated for a long time that SAC might have a competing project to CAC's J-20. As mentioned in previous blog entries, it's still not clear exactly what will happen to this aircraft. It looks to be offered in the export market. It is probably going to be inducted into PLAAF as a compliment to the larger and more expensive J-20. There might be a naval version that gets developed to replace J-15 as PLAN's second generation of naval aircraft. With its experience from developing J-15, a naval version of J-31 should be well within SAC's capability. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see the installation of a domestic engine option that J-31 was designed for. Clearly, the gap between RD-93 and the exhaust indicates that RD-93 isn't the permanent solution to J-31. There will be sometimes before J-31 is ready.
5. Introduction of Z-10 and Z-19 to the world:
The development for Z-10 started in 1998 and was known to the world by the early 2000s, but was kept almost completely confidential for the past 10 years. It first flew in 2003, but was delayed when the PT6C-76C engines embargo was imposed by the Canadian government. The project was delayed until 2009 when a lighter version was developed using the less powerful WZ-9 engine. Z-19 development started probably late last decade and first flew in 2010. It was not kept to the same level of secrecy as Z-10. In this past year's Zhuhai air show, both Z-10 and Z-19 were unveiled to the world. We saw much TV coverage in addition to flight displays from Z-10 and Z-19 units. The most interesting find of this past year was that Z-10 and Z-19 are far wider deployed than we previously estimated, since both only officially achieved operational clearance in the past 2 years. With pictures of different serial numbers, we are able to identify the existence of Z-10 in 5 different PLA LH brigades and Z-19 in 4 different PLA LH brigades. At the present time, each brigade that has Z-10 and/or Z-19 have 12 of each helicopter. Moving forward, it's likely that Z-10 and Z-19 will be deployed to all of the army aviation brigades in the next couple of years. That would represent quite a jump in the capabilities of PLA LH, which had been relying mostly upon Z-9s and Mi-17s up to this point.
6. The continued high tide of PLAN:
2011 was the start of a new wave of shipbuilding for PLAN. This trend only accelerated into this year. Most of the major Chinese naval shipyards have been very busy with naval and civilian maritime ministry orders in the past year. Part of this could be the downturn in the world's shipbuilding market, but an even larger part is that the time has come for this second wave of PLAN modernization (the first being from 2003 to 2006). JiangNan shipyard has been leading the way with 8 052C/D ships in various stages of completion before commissioning along with construction of 039B submarines and Minesweepers. HuDong shipyard has continued its work with at least 3 054A frigates along with Type 903 AOR and multiple 056 patrol ships. Huangpu shipyard is finishing up on its 054A orders, but is building numerous 056 patrol ships, small specialty naval ships and cutters for different maritime agencies. One of the prominent sightings at HP shipyard is the number of rescue ships and CMS ships that are in various stages of completion. Wuchang shipyard also has its shares of cutters along with 039B submarines and 056 patrol ships. Even the smaller shipyards around the country have been getting many orders for auxiliary ships, smaller combat ships and rescue ship/cutters for civilian ministry. The only one that seems to not be getting much work right now is Dalian shipyard. Going forward, this heavy construction activity should continue into next year with JN, HD and HP shipyard continue being the largest naval shipyards in the country.
7. The 056 program:
This interim class between 022 FACs and 054A FFGs has been speculated since 2007. As we saw large number of cutters entering service with the civilian maritime agencies, the demand for this interim class for patroling nearby waters by the navy seem to no longer be there. But by late 2010, it was quite clear that PLAN intends to build this new class of ships. It is expected to replace the roles of 037s and Jianghu class FFGs to conduct naval patrol in South China Sea and provide littoral defense. I think what surprised me was the huge ramp up in the production of 056s. Back in 2010, I was expecting something similar to 054A with production of a couple of early unit, some testing period and then large scale production. The 056 program seems to follow an even more aggressive production schedule than 022 FACs. We are seeing four shipyards (HuDong, HuangPu, WuChang and LiaoNan) producing 056s simultaneously before the first 056 was ever launched. In fact, the first 056 launched from both HP and HD shipyard had their funnels and the bow section reworked after they were already launched. Even with HP shipyard slowing down a little bit recently, there have been at least 7 056s launched in the past 8 months. One 056 from both HP and HD shipyards have already gone out for sea trials. Going forward, it looks like 056 could easily see a production run of over 30 units. It would represent a huge leap over the performance of 037s and Jianghu ships that it will be replacing. As higher priority projects fall in the hands of HD and HP shipyard, we may see some smaller shipyards (in addition to LiaoNan) get orders for 056.
8. Success of Shenyang AC:
It has been a really good year for Shenyang AC. For the past few years, SAC was loosing out to its little brother CAC, who have been successful with J-10 and J-20 project along with export successes with JF-17 and F-7. The J-11B program was delayed for long periods by production failures of FWS-10. Since 2011, FWS-10 has been put on the right track and J-11B/S can now be considered to be successful. On top of that, the successful take-off and landing of J-15 fighter jet along with the first flight of the two-seated version J-15S show that Shenyang has successfully navalized J-11B/S. The unveiling and first flights of J-31,J-16 (China's Su-30 equivalent) and J-15S this year are all great success stories for SAC. SAC is also reported very active with UAV and UCAV projects, so there is a lot to look forward to out of SAC next year.
9. The expansion of civilian maritime agency: Back in 2010, China announced that it will build 30 marine law enforcement vessels over 5 years. I think this is just the plans for Chinese Maritime Surveillance rather than all 5 of the civilian agencies. We can see this massive expansion just by seeing all of the new cutters that are produced at HuangPu and WuChang shipyard. What we often don't see is the smaller shipyards that are also building smaller cutters (of 600 ton class) for CMS. The smaller shipyards have also been busy building smaller cutters (300 to 600 ton class) for FLEC and Maritime Police. On top of the new ships, numerous naval ships that were decommissioned recently have been sent to shipyards to get refurbished for use by CMS and FLEC. Some of the new cutters are used to patrol the disputed waters with Japan and ASEAN. Other cutters are been delivered to coastal provinces to provide security. So, it's wrong to just think this ramp up is purely targeting Japan and Vietnam. Other than the maritime police, the cutters for other agencies are completely unarmed. So while they can look menacing, they are not military ships.
10. Increased transparency:
While PLA is still less transparent than what Western countries would like to see, it has made a lot of effort in increasing transparency. Online military blogs such as this one are more in touch with PLA programs than ever before. Part of that is due to the amount of photos we get on programs that were previously seen as classified. We see pictures of new aircraft projects well before the first flight. Outside of nuclear submarines, I really can't think of any PLAAF or PLAN project that is hidden anymore. At the same time, the Chinese government is putting more effort out there to explain its defence programs like the carrier project and most recently with the Y-20 project. None of this is done accidentally. PLA has increased confidence over the weapon systems that are being developed and deployed. And it also wants to show that to address concerns from other countries.
There are also stories that haven't been mentioned much, but are very important in my opinion. Below are the top 5 under rated stories of 2012:
1. Production of more 052C and 054A ships:
With all of the new ships coming into service, the continued production of 052C and 054A get overlooked a little bit. The production of 054A is going beyond 16, because PLAN has been so pleased with the cost and capability of this ship. 054A is already the work horse of PLAN in major exercises, missions to Gulf of Aden, and other blue water deployment. By the end of its production run, 054A would effectively have replaced all of the old Jianghu ships while pushing the Jiangwei ships to secondary duties. At the same time, the induction of 052C into East Sea Fleet will make the fleet fully modernized by 2014 (all of the old Ludas, Jianghus and Ming class submarines would be replaced). PLAN is no longer in a phase of discovering new capabilities, but mass deploying these new capabilities.
2. Continued expansion of MCM ships:
Another area where PLAN is continuing to modernize is in mine warfare. Unknown to a lot of observers, 3 new Type 081 minesweepers were launched this year bringing the total to 8. Along with the 2 more advanced Type 082II MCM ships, PLAN's MCM operation is continuing to see quantum leap over the old Soviet era T-43 class minesweepers.
3. Ever increasing complexity of PLAAF exercises:
Along with the impreovement in hardware, it seems like the software part of PLA is also improving. The PLAAF version of red flag exercise at Dingxin is getting more and more complex every year. PLAAF has also introduced it's own Top Gun system with awarding of "Golden helmet" to pilots who perform well in the different combat scenarios.
4. The appearance of Y-8 High New 6 maritime patrol aircraft
ASW has long been PLAN's greatest weakness. A large part of that is the lack of a dedicated maritime patrol aircraft designed for ASW missions like P-3C. Although it has to join service with PLANAF, Y-8 High New 6 should eventually fill that role. Knowing that Shaanxi AC can only produce so many platforms every year, PLANAF will really have to battle out with PLAAF for Category III platforms to be installed for this mission.
5. Increase exports of naval and civilian patrol ships
In this past year, an increased sighting amongst Chinese shipyard are military or patrol ships built for export. Most recently, we have seen patrol ships built for Bangladesh, Namibia and Pakistan and refurbished Jianghu ships for Burma and Bangladesh. On top of that, Pakistan has just signed a contract for 4 more F-22P. Since China doesn't report on its naval exports, we really don't know about those deals until we see them taking shape in one of the numerous naval shipyards around the country.
So, that concludes an extremely eventful year for PLAN and PLAAF. There is certainly a lot to look forward to in 2013. It has also been a big year for me personally and I hope we all have a good end of the year.
1. The Aircraft Carrier project:
Many of the PLAN followers have waited for the commissioning and the first flight off Liaoning for over 7 years. Since 2005 when ex-Varyag was first moved into Dalian shipyard dry docks for extensive work and painting of PLAN colours, internet forums have been buzzing with questions about when/if this ship will ever join service. The negotiation for 50 Su-33 and the application of the non-skid layer in 2006 further moved us to think that this ship will join service. However, what appeared to be extensive period of inaction in 2007 and 2008 made us question some of those thoughts. When it was moved to dry docks again in 2009, it appeared just a matter of time before this ship will enter service. Much of the outfitting of sensors and self-defense weapons were installed in 2010 to 2011. We even saw a replica of Liaoning in Wuhan. The sea trials for Liaoning started in August of 2011 and it officially joined service on September 24th of this year after 10 sea trials. We did not find out until later, but numerous touch-n-go had already been completed on this ship by that point. The monumental first take-off and landing with J-15 naval aircraft off Liaoning was completed by Nov 20th. More of the photographed take-off and landings of multiple J-15s were accomplished on Nov 23rd. All in all, this marked the completion of the first stage of the carrier project. Now, China begins the long process of developing a fully operational carrier group with its own naval aviation doctrines.
2. Emergence of type 052D class DDG:
While the wait for this was not nearly as long, many PLAN followers have been waiting since at least 2008 for an improved surface combatant to the 052C class. The relocation of JiangNan shipyard and indigenization of DA80/DN80 gas turbine (QC-280) delayed the production of follow-on units for several years. By late 2010, the 3rd unit of the 052C class was launched at the new JN shipyard. Many PLAN followers were disappointed over the fact that the new 052C had no visible external changes compared to the first two 052C. Over the next year or so, 3 more 052Cs were launched in JN shipyard. They are all in various stages of sea trials and fitting out at the moment. By August of this year, we had the long awaited launching of the much anticipated 052D class. As discussed in previous blog entries, 052D class is fitted with an entirely new generation of air defence and combat system. In addition, we saw the introduction of the Chinese version of MK-41 VLS that can launch different types of missiles and fit multiple missiles per launch cell. When we compared the overhead shot of 052D vs 052C, it appears that the size of the ships did not change much, but the new VLS and other weaponry have allowed more capabilities to be packed in the same hull. It appears that at least 4 052D are planned at the moment. Whether or not we will see more of this class depends on the development of PLAN's next generation of large surface combatants. 052D class is not only important in its much improved combat power versus the 052C class, but it's also very important in testing out this new generation of sensors and weapon systems that will likely be used by future surface combatants of different sizes. One thing to look forward to is the different missiles that will be developed and fitted into the new VLS. Another thing to look forward to is whether this will just be an interim class of 4 ships before a new series of surface combatant comes along or will this be part of a much larger part of PLAN's future.
3. Appearance of Y-20 transport:
This is still a very recent story, so its importance has not really been explored much. One only has to look at all the delayed PLAAF programs to see how important this project is. The strategic lift has been so lacking that China have recently been forced to purchase refurbished second hand IL-76s from Russia. At this point, the IL-76 imported in the early 90s may not have much service life left. At the same time, PLAAF currently only operated 4 KJ-2000 AEWC&C, because PLAAF does not have enough remaining IL-76 units. Other projects that would need something like Y-20 include aerial refueling tanker, ABL, next generation AEWC&C and various other special missions project. The successful induction and mass production of this aircraft would provide a huge leap in PLAAF's force projection capabilities. I put this ahead of J-31, because Y-20 would contribute more to PLAAF's desires to transform from an air denial force to air dominance more than any other project. From this point on, it will be interesting to see how fast Y-20 can join services. As shown with other projects like A400M and C-2, a lot of delays can happen in the development of large military transport.
4. Appearance and first flight of J-31 fighter jet:
The appearance of China's second 5th generation project caused a lot of uproar back in September. It had been speculated for a long time that SAC might have a competing project to CAC's J-20. As mentioned in previous blog entries, it's still not clear exactly what will happen to this aircraft. It looks to be offered in the export market. It is probably going to be inducted into PLAAF as a compliment to the larger and more expensive J-20. There might be a naval version that gets developed to replace J-15 as PLAN's second generation of naval aircraft. With its experience from developing J-15, a naval version of J-31 should be well within SAC's capability. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see the installation of a domestic engine option that J-31 was designed for. Clearly, the gap between RD-93 and the exhaust indicates that RD-93 isn't the permanent solution to J-31. There will be sometimes before J-31 is ready.
5. Introduction of Z-10 and Z-19 to the world:
The development for Z-10 started in 1998 and was known to the world by the early 2000s, but was kept almost completely confidential for the past 10 years. It first flew in 2003, but was delayed when the PT6C-76C engines embargo was imposed by the Canadian government. The project was delayed until 2009 when a lighter version was developed using the less powerful WZ-9 engine. Z-19 development started probably late last decade and first flew in 2010. It was not kept to the same level of secrecy as Z-10. In this past year's Zhuhai air show, both Z-10 and Z-19 were unveiled to the world. We saw much TV coverage in addition to flight displays from Z-10 and Z-19 units. The most interesting find of this past year was that Z-10 and Z-19 are far wider deployed than we previously estimated, since both only officially achieved operational clearance in the past 2 years. With pictures of different serial numbers, we are able to identify the existence of Z-10 in 5 different PLA LH brigades and Z-19 in 4 different PLA LH brigades. At the present time, each brigade that has Z-10 and/or Z-19 have 12 of each helicopter. Moving forward, it's likely that Z-10 and Z-19 will be deployed to all of the army aviation brigades in the next couple of years. That would represent quite a jump in the capabilities of PLA LH, which had been relying mostly upon Z-9s and Mi-17s up to this point.
6. The continued high tide of PLAN:
2011 was the start of a new wave of shipbuilding for PLAN. This trend only accelerated into this year. Most of the major Chinese naval shipyards have been very busy with naval and civilian maritime ministry orders in the past year. Part of this could be the downturn in the world's shipbuilding market, but an even larger part is that the time has come for this second wave of PLAN modernization (the first being from 2003 to 2006). JiangNan shipyard has been leading the way with 8 052C/D ships in various stages of completion before commissioning along with construction of 039B submarines and Minesweepers. HuDong shipyard has continued its work with at least 3 054A frigates along with Type 903 AOR and multiple 056 patrol ships. Huangpu shipyard is finishing up on its 054A orders, but is building numerous 056 patrol ships, small specialty naval ships and cutters for different maritime agencies. One of the prominent sightings at HP shipyard is the number of rescue ships and CMS ships that are in various stages of completion. Wuchang shipyard also has its shares of cutters along with 039B submarines and 056 patrol ships. Even the smaller shipyards around the country have been getting many orders for auxiliary ships, smaller combat ships and rescue ship/cutters for civilian ministry. The only one that seems to not be getting much work right now is Dalian shipyard. Going forward, this heavy construction activity should continue into next year with JN, HD and HP shipyard continue being the largest naval shipyards in the country.
7. The 056 program:
This interim class between 022 FACs and 054A FFGs has been speculated since 2007. As we saw large number of cutters entering service with the civilian maritime agencies, the demand for this interim class for patroling nearby waters by the navy seem to no longer be there. But by late 2010, it was quite clear that PLAN intends to build this new class of ships. It is expected to replace the roles of 037s and Jianghu class FFGs to conduct naval patrol in South China Sea and provide littoral defense. I think what surprised me was the huge ramp up in the production of 056s. Back in 2010, I was expecting something similar to 054A with production of a couple of early unit, some testing period and then large scale production. The 056 program seems to follow an even more aggressive production schedule than 022 FACs. We are seeing four shipyards (HuDong, HuangPu, WuChang and LiaoNan) producing 056s simultaneously before the first 056 was ever launched. In fact, the first 056 launched from both HP and HD shipyard had their funnels and the bow section reworked after they were already launched. Even with HP shipyard slowing down a little bit recently, there have been at least 7 056s launched in the past 8 months. One 056 from both HP and HD shipyards have already gone out for sea trials. Going forward, it looks like 056 could easily see a production run of over 30 units. It would represent a huge leap over the performance of 037s and Jianghu ships that it will be replacing. As higher priority projects fall in the hands of HD and HP shipyard, we may see some smaller shipyards (in addition to LiaoNan) get orders for 056.
8. Success of Shenyang AC:
It has been a really good year for Shenyang AC. For the past few years, SAC was loosing out to its little brother CAC, who have been successful with J-10 and J-20 project along with export successes with JF-17 and F-7. The J-11B program was delayed for long periods by production failures of FWS-10. Since 2011, FWS-10 has been put on the right track and J-11B/S can now be considered to be successful. On top of that, the successful take-off and landing of J-15 fighter jet along with the first flight of the two-seated version J-15S show that Shenyang has successfully navalized J-11B/S. The unveiling and first flights of J-31,J-16 (China's Su-30 equivalent) and J-15S this year are all great success stories for SAC. SAC is also reported very active with UAV and UCAV projects, so there is a lot to look forward to out of SAC next year.
9. The expansion of civilian maritime agency: Back in 2010, China announced that it will build 30 marine law enforcement vessels over 5 years. I think this is just the plans for Chinese Maritime Surveillance rather than all 5 of the civilian agencies. We can see this massive expansion just by seeing all of the new cutters that are produced at HuangPu and WuChang shipyard. What we often don't see is the smaller shipyards that are also building smaller cutters (of 600 ton class) for CMS. The smaller shipyards have also been busy building smaller cutters (300 to 600 ton class) for FLEC and Maritime Police. On top of the new ships, numerous naval ships that were decommissioned recently have been sent to shipyards to get refurbished for use by CMS and FLEC. Some of the new cutters are used to patrol the disputed waters with Japan and ASEAN. Other cutters are been delivered to coastal provinces to provide security. So, it's wrong to just think this ramp up is purely targeting Japan and Vietnam. Other than the maritime police, the cutters for other agencies are completely unarmed. So while they can look menacing, they are not military ships.
10. Increased transparency:
While PLA is still less transparent than what Western countries would like to see, it has made a lot of effort in increasing transparency. Online military blogs such as this one are more in touch with PLA programs than ever before. Part of that is due to the amount of photos we get on programs that were previously seen as classified. We see pictures of new aircraft projects well before the first flight. Outside of nuclear submarines, I really can't think of any PLAAF or PLAN project that is hidden anymore. At the same time, the Chinese government is putting more effort out there to explain its defence programs like the carrier project and most recently with the Y-20 project. None of this is done accidentally. PLA has increased confidence over the weapon systems that are being developed and deployed. And it also wants to show that to address concerns from other countries.
There are also stories that haven't been mentioned much, but are very important in my opinion. Below are the top 5 under rated stories of 2012:
1. Production of more 052C and 054A ships:
With all of the new ships coming into service, the continued production of 052C and 054A get overlooked a little bit. The production of 054A is going beyond 16, because PLAN has been so pleased with the cost and capability of this ship. 054A is already the work horse of PLAN in major exercises, missions to Gulf of Aden, and other blue water deployment. By the end of its production run, 054A would effectively have replaced all of the old Jianghu ships while pushing the Jiangwei ships to secondary duties. At the same time, the induction of 052C into East Sea Fleet will make the fleet fully modernized by 2014 (all of the old Ludas, Jianghus and Ming class submarines would be replaced). PLAN is no longer in a phase of discovering new capabilities, but mass deploying these new capabilities.
2. Continued expansion of MCM ships:
Another area where PLAN is continuing to modernize is in mine warfare. Unknown to a lot of observers, 3 new Type 081 minesweepers were launched this year bringing the total to 8. Along with the 2 more advanced Type 082II MCM ships, PLAN's MCM operation is continuing to see quantum leap over the old Soviet era T-43 class minesweepers.
3. Ever increasing complexity of PLAAF exercises:
Along with the impreovement in hardware, it seems like the software part of PLA is also improving. The PLAAF version of red flag exercise at Dingxin is getting more and more complex every year. PLAAF has also introduced it's own Top Gun system with awarding of "Golden helmet" to pilots who perform well in the different combat scenarios.
4. The appearance of Y-8 High New 6 maritime patrol aircraft
ASW has long been PLAN's greatest weakness. A large part of that is the lack of a dedicated maritime patrol aircraft designed for ASW missions like P-3C. Although it has to join service with PLANAF, Y-8 High New 6 should eventually fill that role. Knowing that Shaanxi AC can only produce so many platforms every year, PLANAF will really have to battle out with PLAAF for Category III platforms to be installed for this mission.
5. Increase exports of naval and civilian patrol ships
In this past year, an increased sighting amongst Chinese shipyard are military or patrol ships built for export. Most recently, we have seen patrol ships built for Bangladesh, Namibia and Pakistan and refurbished Jianghu ships for Burma and Bangladesh. On top of that, Pakistan has just signed a contract for 4 more F-22P. Since China doesn't report on its naval exports, we really don't know about those deals until we see them taking shape in one of the numerous naval shipyards around the country.
So, that concludes an extremely eventful year for PLAN and PLAAF. There is certainly a lot to look forward to in 2013. It has also been a big year for me personally and I hope we all have a good end of the year.
Thursday, December 20, 2024
Whither the Free Syrian Navy?
Rob
& Dan’s conversation below provides a nice segue to a post I’ve been
working… Russia has been watching the conflict in Syria closely and just announced the deployment of five ships to the Mediterranean in the event a non-combatant evacuation of Russian citizens is required. In addition to preparing for this
contingency, this deployment signals waning Russian support for the Assad
regime. Elsewhere on the naval front in Syria, since I posted this, both the web and more official
sources have been scant on additional information on the Syrian rebel fight at
sea. More about that in a minute. But first, a bit about the nature of this
civil war.
It must be understood that the ongoing fighting in the Levant isn’t simply a rebellion by people who have been oppressed by the minority Alawite regime; though, certainly desire for liberty is an integral component of the conflict. Rather, the context of this fight is a complex sectarian proxy war between Salafists Sunnis on one side and the Iranians on the other. In military doctrinal terms, for the Iranians, the war represents a foreign internal defense effort to prop up one of their sole remaining allies in the region, while for the Salafists, Syria is an unconventional warfare effort to overthrow an Iranian proxy state.
As to the “Free Syrian Navy,” after months of silence, a new post appeared on their completely unofficial blog last week. Notice that the new appeal to fishermen and boat owners to take up arms and form a coastal assault force is now directed to Lebanon. As I mentioned in the previous post, there are a number of missions where such a maritime capability would be valuable. So why haven't earlier efforts to form a Free Syrian Navy borne fruit?
It appears that coastal demographics are tilted against the formation of a viable naval resistance. The most likely reason the rebels haven’t had success is that the Alawite strongholds on the coast - those populations most likely to have some sort of fishing/sea-going experience - are aligned with the regime. Were Assad to fall, the populations here would be fighting for their lives, not just to remain in political power. They have no incentive to fight against him now. Hence the FSN request to Sunnis in Lebanon to join the naval fight. The efforts to organize an FSN are probably futile, especially given a full naval order of battle remains intact on the regime side.
It must be understood that the ongoing fighting in the Levant isn’t simply a rebellion by people who have been oppressed by the minority Alawite regime; though, certainly desire for liberty is an integral component of the conflict. Rather, the context of this fight is a complex sectarian proxy war between Salafists Sunnis on one side and the Iranians on the other. In military doctrinal terms, for the Iranians, the war represents a foreign internal defense effort to prop up one of their sole remaining allies in the region, while for the Salafists, Syria is an unconventional warfare effort to overthrow an Iranian proxy state.
On the other side, a Sunni
majority population is supported by the likes of Qatar and other Gulf states who see the fight as an opportunity to give a more powerful Iran a black eye. The leaders of the Syrian National Council
(SNC) - who are now endorsed by western powers - are viewed as little more
than “suits” by the Syrian population and more importantly, the jihadist
fighters that make up the heart of the insurgency. The strongest faction of these rebels is known as the al-Nusra Front (ANF). While ANF might only represent 10-20% of the total resistance, they are the
most effective, most violent fighters, and equipped with the most firepower. More importantly, ANF's ideology, rhetoric, and objectives make them essentially al Qaeda by another name. Along with the hard core ANF, Syria has become the foreign jihadi sponge du jour, and is becoming a magnet for militants from Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this sectarian stew, the SNC
would likely be incapable of governing a post-Assad regime with a rival like ANF vying for political and military power. Finally, as with any sectarian war, thousands of innocent civilians and minority groups are caught in the middle and bearing the brunt of the violence.
I won't speculate as to Assad's staying power here (listen to Dan's points in the video). Many arguments -
some better than others - have been put forth on whether or not the US or other
Western countries should intervene militarily in this fight. Deliberations for
any sort of Western intervention should seriously consider these dynamics and
recall that the last time the US was directly involved in a raging sectarian
conflict of this scope was Iraq circa 2004-2007. That said, if for whatever reason the US finds itself embroiled in this mess, ANF leadership must be part of the target deck. While bombs were being dropped liberally in Libya last spring, we failed to neutralize known al Qaeda elements, and four Americans paid for that mistake with their lives earlier this year.
Back
to the Navy side: In August, a video of another Syrian Navy Colonel defecting and
denouncing Assad appeared on Youtube. The video is of Muhammad Mikhbaht, of the Navy Staff Recon Division. He opens with obligatory Quran
verses and well wishes for all the wounded and the martyred civilians. After
announcing his defection, he denounces the Syrian Army for attacking the
unarmed civilians. He calls for all the officers in every Syrian military
division to denounce the Syrian regime and join the civilian revolution. He
ends the video with something along the lines of "long live free Syria and
victory is definitely coming soon Allah willing." By my unofficial count,
this is the third naval officer to publically defect since the revolution
began. Undoubtedly, there are many others. Whether or not these defectors are
currently active in the resistence in more than than a social media figurehead
role is unknown. |
| Ethnic Demographics are against the formation of a FSN |
As to the “Free Syrian Navy,” after months of silence, a new post appeared on their completely unofficial blog last week. Notice that the new appeal to fishermen and boat owners to take up arms and form a coastal assault force is now directed to Lebanon. As I mentioned in the previous post, there are a number of missions where such a maritime capability would be valuable. So why haven't earlier efforts to form a Free Syrian Navy borne fruit?
It appears that coastal demographics are tilted against the formation of a viable naval resistance. The most likely reason the rebels haven’t had success is that the Alawite strongholds on the coast - those populations most likely to have some sort of fishing/sea-going experience - are aligned with the regime. Were Assad to fall, the populations here would be fighting for their lives, not just to remain in political power. They have no incentive to fight against him now. Hence the FSN request to Sunnis in Lebanon to join the naval fight. The efforts to organize an FSN are probably futile, especially given a full naval order of battle remains intact on the regime side.
Wednesday, December 19, 2024
Foreign Entanglements: Syria
On the latest Foreign Entanglements, I spoke with Dan Trombly about Syria and sundry:
I'm an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, University of Kentucky.
Talking to Robots on the Flight Deck
You might ask yourself, "Who in the world is that yellow shirt signaling?" It is an unmanned system afterall, right? What is the point if the operator is that green shirted guy (not that kind of green shirt) right next to the yellow shirt. That was exactly the question on my mind last week when i first noted all the pictures and video put out by the US Navy as the X-47B was driving all over the flight deck of the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75).
Well, it turns out all that work is part of teaching the UCAS-D to read and understand the hand signals of the Yellow Shirt. Yes, that guy in the green on video is the human engaged pilot, but there is a learning process underway by which the unmanned aircraft is learning how to taxi around an aircraft carrier autonomously based on the hand signals of the yellow shirt.
Ready to watch the video again? Pretty cool IMO.
Watch very closely in this video (and check out others for more examples) and you will see how very deliberate the yellow shirt is with his signals, indeed he stays very steady and is being very deliberate with every motion. This is an example of yet one more in a long list of very interesting, intricate processes being developed as the Navy moves toward flying advanced computers without pilots strapped to jet engines off aircraft carriers.
As one pilot noted to me today, what this video is actually showing is a two way conversation on the flight deck.
Tuesday, December 18, 2024
100 Most Influencial People in US Defense
By now I am sure most of you
have checked out the inaugural 100 Most Influential People in U.S. Defense list that was compiled by more than two dozen reporters and
editors representing the staffs of Gannett Government Media’s publications Defense News, Army Times, Air Force Times,
Navy Times, Marine Corps Times, Armed Forces Journal, and Federal Times.
I
like this idea for several reasons, but the primary reason is because I
look forward to seeing how this list changes over time. It is a list,
so it isn't exactly something seriously impactful and is obviously a
type of popularity contest, but I do believe it can be useful in the
future when we look back and see who was at the table when the sausage
was made in National Defense.
In my opinion, Gannett got this
list 99% right, and I say that because I do not believe Bradley Manning
belongs on the list. For everyone on the list but Bradley Manning,
Gannett used one definition of Influence, but had to change that
definition to include Manning. Other than that one issue, I think
Gannett has done a really good job and by ranking folks they have
enabled, if so desired, a debate on who should not have been left off
the list, who else should not be on the list, and whether the order of
the list is accurate.
It is noteworthy to Chairman of
the House Armed Services Committee Buck McKeon is not on the list. I
don't know Bob Simmons, but I know of Bob Simmons and I do agree he
belongs on the list. I also agree Buck McKeon doesn't belong on the
list, as his influence is marginal. I can't explain why, except that I
agree with the perception by Gannett that Buck McKeon is more of a
figurehead than a leader as Chairman of the House Armed Services
Committee.
I would have put Bob Work at
15, Mike Rogers at 25, and Susan Rice at 35. The reason is simple.
First, Bob Work has changed the strategy discussion in Washington towards seapower. Second, Mike
Rogers may have a prominent position in the House, but he has not
exercised his authority to any degree by which we can say there is clear policy influence. Third, Susan Rice has no influence
beyond her own community, never has had such influence, and has not demonstrated the
charisma she ever will have such influence.
I think the top 10 are spot on accurate.
If we removed Bradley Manning,
who would you replace on the list? I note in the "Who didn't make the list" page they list both Doctrine Man and Sailor Bob. I love Doctrine
Man, he is great and if you use Facebook and don't follow Doctrine Man, I
think you are missing out on something incredibly smart, but in my
opinion Sailor Bob was the person who was left off for Bradley Manning.
So to protest the 1% failure
rate of Gannett - who did a great job here btw - I have decided to make a
Navy Top 50. With help from several Navy officers around the world and
the good folks at CIMSEC, I hope to have the list ready for the New
Year.
If you have suggestions or wish
to comment on the list, the comments are open. Keep it professional, I
don't want to spend my day being a conduct
cop on the blog.
DIP 600: Seapower
Working up my Seapower syllabus for next semester; take a look, make suggestions in comments...
I'm an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, University of Kentucky.
Monday, December 17, 2024
Potpourri
On the latest episode of Foreign Entanglements, Nick Sarantakes and I spoke about his latest book, Making Patton:
It's a very interesting work; we also draw out some implications for more modern war/foreign policy films.
Some other points of interest:
It's a very interesting work; we also draw out some implications for more modern war/foreign policy films.
Some other points of interest:
- Nitin Pai loves the idea of India staking out a position on the South China Sea dispute.
- Stephen Walt's thoughts on Chuck Hagel for SecDef.
- Harry Kazianis interviews Randy Forbes.
- The Air Force got software troubles.
- A new game plan for China's nuclear arsenal?
I'm an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, University of Kentucky.
Friday, December 7, 2024
USS MCFAUL Returns from 281 Day Deployment
According to the caption on the official Navy photo, the ship spent "270 or more" uninterrupted days at sea.
I'm glad we have all those precision guided weapons and gee-whiz networks that keep us from having to have too many ships.
This is only going to get worse.
Bryan McGrath
Thursday, December 6, 2024
Airpower Diplomacy?
In contrast to Adam Lowther, I'm skeptical about the potential for airpower diplomacy:
Simply put, the United States Air Force is not a tool honed for “soft” or “smart” power. Its understanding of the commons is at odds with the idea of a positive sum game. This is not to say that airpower (whether manifested in the USAF or otherwise) does not have a critical role to play in the future of U.S. defense policy in the Asia-Pacific. Rather, it is important to specify the contribution made by each instrument of foreign and defense policy. The Navy has devoted substantial intellectual and material energy to developing “smart” and “soft” power tools for engaging with diplomatic partners, and has indeed made such engagement a critical element of its overall approach to maritime security. The Air Force has yet to develop a conception of “soft power” more complex than “friends make the exercise of hard power easier.”Yet another predictable anti-airpower screed etc. etc.
I'm an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, University of Kentucky.
Sunday, December 2, 2024
Sunday Book Review: Viper Pilot
 |
| DoD photo by Senior Airman Greg L. Davis, U.S. Air Force. |
The Wild Weasel plays one of the most critical roles in modern airpower operations, the defeat of enemy air defenses. In context of a balance of technology and military power that heavily favors modern Western airpower, advanced air defense systems, most often purchased from Russia or China, represent the only effective defense for second-tier states. The most important enabler for modern airpower operations isn't the air superiority fighter, because modern Western air forces rarely have to fight air-to-air combat. Rather, it's the SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) team, which kicks the door open and holds it open long enough for all the other elements of an air operation to do their jobs.
Hampton's battle accounts are genuinely gripping. He never becomes involved in actual air-to-air combat, but he's very convincing on the danger and excitement of the Wild Weasel mission, not to mention the close air support runs he occasionally has to make. Moreover, Hampton's battle accounts connect well with his earlier discussion of training. An F-16 pilot needs to be able to conduct an enormous number of intellectual tasks simultaneously, from managing his fuel to assessing threats to organizing her command to paying attention to where all the weapons are going, all while flying an aircraft that, aerodynamically, would prefer to be on or in the ground. Hampton suggests that flying an F-16 under combat conditions is akin to playing several musical instruments at the same time, which sounds about right. Hampton's accounts of non-combat missions (coordinating the landing of a squadron during a sandstorm, test-piloting a poorly maintained Egyptian F-16) are equally compelling.
At the same time, Hampton admits not the faintest grasp of or interest in grand strategy or international politics. He only occasionally comments on the geopolitical realities of the wars that he fights in, and then usually without much insight. In this he fits the stereotype of the Air Force fighter pilot who is interested, above all, in flying fighter aircraft in wartime conditions. The rest (why he's there, what he's doing) is relatively incidental. He enjoys utilizing the killing power of the F-16, even on missions (such as close air support) that the Air Force as a whole is altogether unenthusiastic about.
Viper Pilot is a quick read; Hampton is a good writer, with a sound grasp of what should and shouldn't become part of the narrative. He knows that no one has bought Viper Pilot to read about family. There's a fair amount of interesting trivia about the Air Force and about F-16s; I'll confess that I had never quite understood the Viper vs. Fighting Falcon debate, or the role that the original Battlestar Galactica plays in that conversation, but it makes sense in context. If you like fighter pilot narratives, you'll probably like this book. If you don't, you won't.
I'm an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, University of Kentucky.
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year
The air is crisp and the skies at night are aglow with millions of stars. Spirits are high with anticipation for the coming season. No, I'm not taking about the holidays, I'm referring to the impending kick-off of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society's (SSCS) Southern Ocean counter-whaling season. Many of those who follow the group see SSCS campaigns as not simply eco-activism, but as a living laboratory for the study of modern irregular warfare at sea.
This year's Antarctic campaign, dubbed "Operation Zero Tolerance," will be SSCS' largest ever in terms of fleet size and capability. The fleet includes four ships, a helicopter, eight RHIB’s, three UAVs, and more than 120 international volunteer sailors. SSCS has acquired a southern operating base at Seaworks, Williamstown near Melbourne, Australia. Undoubtably, the campaign will also feature new tactics.
 |
| Guess #2 - Is this Sam Simon? |
MTF.
The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.
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