New Strategy Begins With North Korea

From the notable location of the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), I think Secretary Gates is trying to tell us something.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Monday that provocative actions by North Korea signal difficult and potentially dangerous times ahead, and he said the U.S. must work with China and others to bring stability to the peninsula.

Speaking to sailors on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, Gates said no one wants to see another war, so the U.S. needs to "figure out the way ahead with North Korea."

Meanwhile North Korean midget submarines are back in the news.

North Korea has developed a new type of midget submarine fitted with torpedo launch tubes, allowing it to attack South Korea warships more easily, a report said Tuesday.

Satellite images of a naval base in the North's southwestern city of Nampo, published by JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, show what appears to be a 17-metre-long (56-feet) submarine with a tube-like structure attached to its top.

"We have concluded that it is a torpedo launch tube," the paper quoted an unidentified Seoul intelligence source as saying.

The paper said the new Daedong-B midget submarine moves faster than larger submarines and is harder for military radar to detect.

Meanwhile, South Korea turns their offshore islands near the northern maritime border into fortresses, Admiral Mullen is dispatched to Asia, the International Criminal Court begins an inquiry into potential war crimes by North Korea (including the Cheonan sinking btw), Secretary Clinton meets with diplomatic heads of Japan and South Korea, and most importantly President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao have a little phone conversation.

A few observations. President Obama is terrible when having to adapt to crisis and he doesn't have a plan, but when he does have a plan he tends to demonstrate remarkable toughness. It is pretty obvious to me the President doesn't have a plan for things like Wikileaks, and he didn't have a plan for tax cuts.

But I think he does have a plan when it comes to South Korea. The plan is really simple - make North Korea China's problem and if North Korea attacks - let South Korea lead and support them in every way possible - and South Korea has established how that will end.

South Korea will swiftly and strongly respond with force until North Korea surrenders if the communist state launches another assault, the South's new defence minister said.

If China miscalculates based on that kind of clarity, then China probably has no business thinking they should lead in Asia in the first place. Sure makes you wonder what Obama and Hu said to each other.

Do I think Kim Kwan-Jin means what he is saying? Yes, I do. I also think South Korea is working right now to train for exactly that. As I have tried to make clear from the beginning, do not expect to predict the outcome because the President has already decided the approach to North Korea will not be like the old approach. If you don't believe the US, South Korea, and Japan are plotting right now on ways to go after North Korea - then you are ignoring everything that has taken place so far. It won't be a straight up conventional military attack - it will be creative and unexpected.

And the only way it doesn't happen is if China steps up, or North Korea gives in. That is why Gates is probably right when he said there are "difficult and potentially dangerous times ahead." Interestingly enough, I think nobody believes in what the US is doing because like most US conservatives, many people in the world believe President Obama's conciliatory approach early in his President was a reflection of a personal weakness by the President. I think that assumption is very flawed, because it ignores his style, and ignores when and why his decisions are anything but.