The New York Times is reporting the Russian naval force dispatched from the Black Sea Base in the Ukraine will be landing Russian troops in Ochamchire, a port city in the disputed territory of Abkhazia.The conflict between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia moved toward full-scale war on Saturday, as Russia sent warships to land ground troops in the disputed territory of Abkhazia and broadened its bombing campaign across Georgia...There are some interesting considerations here. There are no reports of what type of ships are transporting Russian troops and equipment, but we can do some guessing. Based on what we have been hearing, while possible, we do not believe these are the Ropucha class LSTs that the Ukrainian bloggers have been noting, rather these are more likely some prepositioning ships Russia had prepared. Depending upon the number of ships, it could potentially be anywhere from a battalion or two, or perhaps a brigade or two. Unverified reports suggest the number is around 4,000. There are still no good press reports regarding the size of the naval force that deployed from the Ukraine, although it has been reported that both Cruisers at the Black Sea Base put to sea.
Russia also notified Western governments that it was moving ships of its Black Sea fleet to Ochamchire, a port on the Abkhaz coast. Georgian officials said they expected Russian troops to land there.
On July 31st, it was reported that Russia had completed a major railroad to Ochamchire, so it would appear this will be a major Russian logistics base.
While the tracks were repaired and peace negotiations stalled, the Russian military has been running major military maneuvers Kavkaz-2008 in the North Caucasus close to the Georgian border since July 15. It was announced that some 8,000 servicemen, 700 pieces of armor and artillery, and 30 aircraft are taking part in the exercises that officially are to prepare for encounters with terrorists. But there have been reports in the Russian press that the number of troops is substantially higher (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, July 18). The maneuvers involve airborne, motor-rifle and mountain troops of the North Caucasian Military District as well as paratroopers from the 76th airborne division from Pskov and marines of the Black Sea and Caspian fleets. Paratroopers were deployed on the border with South Ossetia on the Roki and Mamisoni mountain passes of the main Caucasian ridge. The paratroopers were reinforced by mechanized and mountain troops. Black Sea fleet marines landed near Adler, supported by airpower and Black Sea battle ships firing artillery and antiaircraft missiles—all, allegedly, to prepare to fight “terrorists” (ITAR-TASS, July 23).That report linked above is a must read in full, interesting it was written a week before the war.
Ochamchire does not have good port facilities that we know about, so it could be that Russia has deployed engineering and other forces to build a logistics bridge from sea into Abkhazia there to prepare for further follow on forces. This sounds a bit like Russia intends to set up a fast ferry system from Adler to Ochamchire. Adler is the closest port city in Russia to Abkhazia, and based on the exercises last month it could be there are still plenty of troops to facilitate logistics and military operations in support of a major campaign. Setting up a logistics bridge would allow Russia to quickly and safely transport any equipment to Ochamchire, thus bypassing over 100 miles of tough terrain through Abkhazia.
For perspective, Ochamchire is about 40 miles from the critical Georgian port city of Poti, which has taken a pounding by the Russian air force.
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