5th Fleet Focus: Early Middle East Arms Sales - Updated

The early announcements for the Middle East Arms sales have been announced. They prove so far exactly what has been predicted, the Diplomatic Surge is about reducing the US footprint in the region, bringing GCC states into the established international security frameworks, and encouraging regional security that includes Iraq and the PA issue.

On the Israeli front their first batch of military orders include Jet Fuel, air to air missiles, and Harpoons missiles. In relation to the defense sales for every regional nation, this is the least threatening purchase in the region this year. Egypt for its part has elected to go with tanks first. I'm not really sure what to make of that to be honest.

For me though, the most interesting response yet is the Saudi announcement today. Robot Economist predicted this when he pointed out that defense services was the primary focus of the bulk of any defense deal between the US and Saudi Arabia in the past. Todays news, no doubt highlighted by a problem I originally pointed out, begins to tell the Saudi defense sales story.

The plan to set up a force that will eventually number 35,000 to guard oil and other installations was announced in July by the country's interior minister, Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz. The Middle East Economic Survey (Mees) reported: "The scale of the latest security initiative is immense and several years are likely to elapse until the new force is fully capable." The total cost was likely to reach $5bn (£2.48bn), it said.

According to Mees, recruits are being trained in the use of laser security and satellite imaging surveillance equipment, countermeasures and crisis management under a programme managed by Lockheed Martin. Members of the force are being heavily vetted and largely recruited from outside the Saudi security forces. The protection of oil facilities is currently the responsibility of a 15,000-strong force run by Aramco, the state oil corporation.

Saudi Arabia has seen several attacks on its infrastructure, but none has so far disrupted the flow of oil. In February 2006, al-Qaida attacked the Abqaiq oil facilities in Eastern Province, which supplies almost 10% of the world's oil. The attack did not stop exports, but pushed up oil prices by $2 a barrel.

A lot was made of JDAMs, and a Saudi offer for the LCS is coming, but when you add up the costs of what they will buy from the US this year, the vast majority of it will be training. Considering the strategic value of Middle Eastern energy, all efforts towards security is a good thing. I'm not a big fan of the Saudi government, and even less impressed with the quality of their military, but I will acknowledge that any increase in the military capability of Saudi Arabia at this time is a good thing for global economics, and certainly serves the interest of the US if we can reduce our footprint in the region.

Update: First media article to mention the LCS for Saudi Arabia came out today, not sure why it took them so long. Unlike the original reports, it appears the deal is mostly about the LCS, with a limited JDAM purchase as was said on this blog. Going by the 12 billion figure it appears AEGIS may still in the plans.