Tracking Gustav On the Net

Quick note for those who want to track Hurricane Gustav. Not sure if the name Michael Barnett rings a bell, but it should. He was the guy who started a live journal diary to record a few experiences during Hurricane Katrina only to see it blow up into much, much more (read history here). During Hurricane Katrina he was the only blogger to stay online, most notably through his live journal blog Interdictor. Carrying his torch forward, the good folks in the Zipa Datacenter in downtown New Orleans are the only bloggers on the internet that can say they have done this before, so keep an eye on the Gustav Bloggers.

Last time they did an amazing job coordinating IRC channels, offering audio for local police scanners, running a web cam from downtown NOLA, and generally became the place to be online. Yea, some of the old IRC logs are still on the internet from 2005, I even found good ole "Galrahn" in the logs. I kid not when I say these folks are up to the task, and will be who to watch if the worst happens.

Also noteworthy is a Gustav Wiki, which we find to be a very interesting way to record lessons learned in real time for natural disasters, potentially a very useful source depending upon update quality. Admittedly, what we already see is excellent.

5th Fleet Focus: Singapore Deploys Again to the Gulf

Singapore continues to be a solid friend to the Iraqi people as they deploy a LST yet again to the Persian Gulf in support of defending the Iraqi oil Terminals.

A Singapore Navy Landing Ship Tank (LST) left the country's Changi naval base early Saturday for the Gulf region to support the multi-national reconstruction efforts in Iraq.

According to the statement issued by the Defense Ministry on Saturday, RSS Resolution and its crew of about 175 personnel will undertake tasks such as protecting the waters around key oil terminals, conducting patrols and boarding operations, as well as providing logistics support for coalition vessels and helicopters during the three-month deployment.

To review the history here, RSS Endurance (L 207) operated in the Persian Gulf from October 2003 until December 2003. RSS Resolution (L 208) operated in the Persian Gulf from November 2004 until January 2005. RSS Endeavour (L 210) operated in the Persian Gulf from February 2006 until April 2006. RSS Persistence (L 209) deployed last September to contribute to Task Force 58.

Once again, we see an amphibious ship used in a role other than for amphibious assault, more evidence of the flexibility of the platform. In this case, Singapore uses their LSTs as motherships in protection of fixed resources at sea.

As the picture above highlights, in the past Singapore has deployed Protector USVs from their LSTs for patrols. In other words, big motherships, not small, is the trend everywhere but the US Navy.

In the past, people in the comments think we are out on a limb with our mothership concepts, but we again highlight the concepts promoted on the blog are tested, it is the US Navy spending taxpayer money on untested ideas... namely replacing rated frigates with unrated small motherships and expecting the same results.

We see RSS Resolution (L 208) replacing the USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) which will be returning home soon. The US Navy amphibious force has been on a very rapid deployment schedule, and we don't believe the US Navy will be deploying an amphibious ship to replace the USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) due to the high operational tempo. This deployment would seem to alleviate the necessity for a replacement.

Royal Navy Responsds To Gustav

The BBC is reporting the Royal Navy is sending two ships to Cuba in a humanitarian response to Hurricane Gustav.

Gustav, which is forecast to strengthen to a Category 5 storm over the Gulf, powered through western Cuba overnight.

Frigate HMS Iron Duke and RFA Wave Ruler are sending up helicopters to survey the area and are offering first aid, water and food to victims.

They will also help clear up and restore local infrastructure.

Prince William is no longer aboard, in case you were wondering...

All indications are that Gustav kicked Cuba's ass. I keep at what point the United States will attempt to reach out and offer assistance. Even if they say no, it never hurts to ask. The only way to change the relationship is to change the way the relationship works.

5th Fleet Focos: Establishing Deterrence for Piracy

We do not believe it will make much of a difference, but hope to be wrong. Navy Times is discussing the new Maritime Security Patrol that Task Force 150 is establishing in the area of the Gulf of Aden between Somalia and Yemen. We look forward to seeing whether this will make a difference.

Cmdr. Jane Campbell, public affairs officer at 5th Fleet, said the patrol area could be described roughly as a rectangular shape over the Gulf of Aden, with a constant allied naval presence. “The number will vary, but we’ll have ships on station,” she said. “This is not a long-term solution; it’s a short-term, focused operation.”

Along with surface patrols, shore-based aircraft, shipborne helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles also will keep a weather eye on the Gulf of Aden.

Convoy information in support of the Maritime Security Patrol Area can be found at Noonsite, who is cooperation with Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) is looking for all information available to better coordinate patrols.

Click the image above for a high resolution look at 2008 piracy in the area as of April 24, 2008. Stopping piracy will not be easy. Even if we assume the rectangle described is only 200 by 50 nautical miles large, that is still 10,000 square miles of water to cover. Figure 5 coalition ships, and maybe, possibly 5 US Navy ships and between the 10 vessels each ship is responsible for 1000 square miles for each ship. Even spacing the ships within the grid, response time at 25 knots within a grid would likely be measured in hours not minutes.

While aircraft and UAVs can assist in scouting, without a change in the RoE we don't see this making a significant impact to the patrol beyond scouting, so early detection will be their only true value to the program. Early detection, particularly in regards to attacks that originate from pirate motherships, has proven difficult in the past.

Update: Eagle1 has more, and very useful information on the sea lane being established.

2nd Fleet Focus: USS Bataan Responds to Gustav

Navy Times is reporting the USS Bataan (LHD 5) will be putting to sea Monday for potential response for Hurricane Gustav.

The amphibious assault ship Bataan will get underway Monday for what officials are calling a “readiness at sea event”

The ship’s initial mission will be to prepare for disaster response, according to Vice Adm. Mel Williams, the 2nd Fleet commander.

There is some irony, for those who may not remember, the USS Bataan (LHD 5) was in the Gulf of Mexico 3 years ago during Hurricane Katrina, and one of the lessons learned noted how the ship was never well utilized, mostly due to communication problems and agency coordination issues.

As we look observe much of the analysis of this storm, it does appear we can expect to see considerably more damage to Louisiana from Gustav than we saw from Katrina, and an even larger set of problems. Katrina hit Mississippi very hard, but Gustav will end up hitting Baton Rogue and Lafayette with wind damage harder than what we expect to see in New Orleans. With much of the state command and control networks built into Baton Rogue and Lafayette, but with heavy flooding expected in New Orleans, command and control will immediately be tested.

From our point of view, the USS Bataan (LHD 5) deployment is coming a day late, and it is particularly noteworthy the Navy will have difficulty deploying more ships from the east coast if necessary. Hurricane Hanna will soon be influencing the lines of communication at sea off the east coast of Florida, meaning after Monday any other ships will be forced to take the long route through heavy seas around Hanna to help in the Gulf Coast. It will be interesting to see how this develops, but if major damage hits Baton Rogue, Lafayette, and New Orleans, we might end up wishing we had more ships at sea.