NSW in the PI

Here's a nice video featuring SEALs in the Philippines. Also see JSOTF-P's blog here.

I agree the nearly decade old operation has gone well and been cost effective. But frankly, comparisons to the scope and cost of JSOTF-P's COIN (really FID) efforts to COIN/CT efforts in Iraq or Afghanistan are apples and rocks. The nature of the insurgencies are fundamentally different as unlike the primary AQ affiliates, the Mindanao insurgents are of limited importance to al Qaeda's overall strategy and lack external support and an influx of foreign jihadists fighters.

Criticism aside though, the NSW (SEAL and SWCC), NECC forces (primarily maritime civil affairs), and various USN/USNS ships have done a tremendous job in supporting the PI military in combating Islamic insurgents since 2002. (And yes, there are non-Navy SOF and GPF involved also, but this has been a maritime-centric operation). Aside from the obvious COIN lessons learned, some take-aways from a naval IW perspective include the experience gained operating and sustaining distributed SOF in an archipeligo, use of small tactical UAS in a maritime environment, and long duration afloat staging of SOF.

Update: try this link at SWJ. For some reason (probably my technical ineptitude), the above video link isn't working.

The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.

China Flexes Muscles in the South China Sea

Good analysis by NIGHTWATCH of some events taking place in the South China Sea.

Philippines-China: The Philippine military on 2 March sent two military aircraft to patrol the ocean and air space near Reed Bank, a long time Philippine-occupied territory in the South China Sea. The Philippines took the action in response to the behavior of two Chinese patrol boats which harassed a Philippine ship searching for oil, according to Philippine military commander Lieutenant General Juancho Sabban.

A Philippine OV-10 aircraft and an Islander light patrol aircraft were deployed after the incident was reported, Sablan said. The Chinese boats appeared ready to ram the Philippine vessel on two occasions before turning away, a military official said. No warning shots were fired and the ships later left, officials said. A Philippine navy patrol vessel was sent to secure oil exploration activities at the Reed Bank, and the Chinese Embassy would not immediately respond to Philippine requests for an explanation.

Comment: The significance of this incident is that it shows that China intends to assert its claims to sovereignty of the South China Sea to the shores of the Philippines. Incidents involving the Japanese are neither unique nor isolated. Ship ramming appears to be an approved Chinese tactic.

Prior to this incident, the Japanese complaints about Chinese behavior appeared anecdotal, idiosyncratic and racial. This incident shows the Chinese claim everything in the South China Sea, regardless of race, color, creed or national sovereignty.

The AP has an article on the initial incident. The Philippines Star reports there was a protest, and China has not responded to the protest in a very productive way, by namely claiming the area as their territory.

As if pushing around the Philippines in the South China Sea was just an appetizer, today Hanoi filed a protest regarding a Chinese naval exercises in their maritime territory.

2011 is starting in much the same way 2010 did, with China pushing their neighbors around over territorial claims. This did many good things for US relations in the region in 2010, and with more of this it is sure to do good things for US relations with the region in 2011 as well.

U.S. Navy Officer's Death in Philippines Ruled a Homicide

In Manila last December, U.S. Navy Lieutenant Scintar Mejia died in what had been reported as a suicide. But as discussed in an earlier post, the conflicting reports left more questions than answers.

Not surprisingly, a joint investigation has revealed that Mejia's death was a homicide.

Today, it was announced that the Pasay city police chief recommended charges against 11 aviation policemen, five of whom will face homicide charges.

Navy Supply Corps Officer Dies in Custody in Manila

There are many, many questions that deserve answers in this tragic story.

According to news reports, Navy Lieutenant Scintar Mejia of Los Angeles, CA died Monday as a result of injuries suffered after reportedly jumping to his his death while in custody for alleged possession of cocaine. Mejia was a Filipino-American Navy Supply Corps officer selected for promotion to Lieutenant Commander.

A day earlier, Mejia was arrested at Ninoy Aquino International Airport as he passed through Terminal 2 security when security officials reportedly discovered a small packet containing .03 grams of a white powdery substance, initially reported as cocaine. Mejia allegedly became unruly, denied that he was carrying drugs, threw the packet at authorities, and accused them of setting him up for a crime. It was later determined that the substance was not cocaine.

Held overnight at the Police Center for Aviation Security at Terminal 1 at the airport, Mejia asked aviation police for permission to use the restroom. Reportedly, the restroom was in use and Mejia asked permission urinate outside. As he was escorted outside, Mejia reportedly dashed toward the stairs and dove toward the ground landing on the cement below.

The U.S. Naval Criminal Investigation Service (NCIS) is conducting an investigation in parallel with Pasay City police authorities.

There are many questions and contradicting information surrounding the circumstances of Mejia's arrest and death. The more recent reports from the Philippines are subsequent to the announcement that NCIS would participate in the investigation. These reports also seemingly attempt to paint Mejia as a drug trafficker, although there is little or nothing to back that up in the earlier reports.

Some of the relevant questions:

1. When did Mejia arrive in the Philippines? Earlier reports said he arrived sometime last week. More recent reports said he arrived on Christmas Day, just a day earlier.
2. How was the substance discovered? In the Philippine Star report, airport security Superintendent Manuel Pintado stated he was informed that Mejia himself removed the packet from his carry-on bag after it passed through the X-Ray machine. The AP reported that security officials discovered the packet.
3. How could Mejia have thrown the packet at security? If it was discovered by security, it was likely never in Mejia's hands. If Mejia pulled it from his bag, why would he have thrown it at security?
4. How much money did he have in his possession? Earlier reports made no mention of carrying a large amount of money. More recent reports state that he had over $30,000 in his possession.
5. What actually happened to Mejia while he was in custody?

Beyond the many inconsistencies in the reporting, there are a thousand questions that could be asked surrounding his time in custody and the exact circumstances surrounding the fatal fall. The one overarching question in this case is whether this whole tragedy is the result of a hudilap.

We may never find out.

7th Fleet Focus: Natural Disaster... Again, and Again...

Keep an eye on this. 7th Fleet has its hands full with natural disasters this week. Not only have we seen 2 tsunamis, one in American Samoa no less (which should be the top priority), but we have already seen one Typhoon hit the Philippines this week... and now a Super-Typhoon is inbound.

The Philippines declared a national “state of calamity” as Typhoon Parma headed for Luzon, where recovery efforts continue six days after Tropical Storm Ketsana devastated Manila and its surroundings, leaving 293 people dead.

Authorities began moving people from provinces north and southeast of Manila into shelters, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro said in an interview on ABS-CBN television. The nationwide state of calamity gives the government the power to peg the price of basic goods.

Parma’s eye was 254 kilometers (158 miles) northeast of the city of Daet on Luzon at 2 p.m. Manila time today, the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. The typhoon is forecast to make landfall after 8 a.m. tomorrow.

I expect we will see the Reagan CSG pop up right after the Super-Typhoon passes as "Johnny on the spot" ready to help. The Navy blogosphere is trying to nail down some blogger roundtables with folks in the Pacific dealing with the natural disaster situations in the Pacific, hopefully something comes of it.

Expect a lot of discussion on this topic over the next week. We have elevated HA/DR as a core emphasis of strategy, and the anniversary of CS-21 is almost here - a perfect opportunity to evaluate HA/DR's new emphasis. We see natural disasters in places like the far southeast of 7th Fleets AOR and the far southwest of 7th Fleets AOR, and 2 major typhoons in a row now hitting the Philippines, right in the middle of 7th Fleets AOR.

The Pacific is gigantic, that is a lot of range to cover and it is very hard for ships to do it quickly. This is the real life scenario of multiple unlikely natural disasters hitting the same region again and again and again, all resulting in massive damage and high causalities. They used to call wargames and simulations of this scenario unrealistic... can't say that anymore.

This Super-Typhoon about to hit the Philippines can have geopolitical ramifications; weather often does. We have seen how weather influences piracy, but if you recall, it was the Tsunami of 2004 that pretty much wiped out all the piracy in the Strait of Malacca in 2004, and piracy at that time was as bad as Somalia was last fall.

Oh, and remember all that Chinese naval power that was supposed to be ready to respond to Natural Disasters? It is nowhere to be found. Watch the Pacific news commentary, a lot of people have begun taking notice, and are mentioning it. We may yet see it though, should this Super Typhoon slam into China...

And there is another Super Typhoon forming behind this one...

Disaster in the Philippines

The flooding in the Philippines has affected at least 450,000 people and has displaced about 150,000 people.

Officials said the economic damage from the worst rains on record in the Manila area was about 1.4 billion pesos ($30 million), including 500 million pesos in lost crops. Damaged roads and bridges accounted for most of the remaining costs.

Officials expected the toll to rise with people looking for missing relatives and residents trapped in flooded houses two days after Typhoon Ketsana dumped about 410 mm of rain in 24 hours, about the average amount of rainfall for an entire month.

Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines has deployed small boats and medical personnel to help in the recovery efforts. So far, no ships have been reported to have responded, but the Reagan CSG may be tasked that direction by the end of the week.

As of September 17, U.S. Navy Sailors delivered medical supplies, food, and rescued more than 52 people in Manila, including one woman in labor.

It also looks like more bad weather may be on the way.