The Calm Before the Storm

I was thinking of this quote from Tom Rick's book The Gamble today.

“But Fallon prided himself on being a strategic thinker, a sense he may have developed because there was little competition in that arena in the Navy, which in recent years has tended to be weak, intellectually, aside from its elite counter-terror force in Special Operations, which is practically a separate service. It is difficult, for example, to think of a senior Navy officer who has played a prominent role in shaping American strategy since 9/11, or of an active-duty Navy officer who has written a book or essay as influential as those produced by the Army’s Col. H.R. McMaster, Lt. Col. Paul Yingling, and Lt. Col. John Nagl.”

It's a good thing he didn't use General Petraeus as an example, because when I read the last paragraph on the last page of this article discussing Bob Woodward's upcoming book, I was stunned.

Woodward quotes Petraeus as saying, "You have to recognize also that I don't think you win this war. I think you keep fighting. It's a little bit like Iraq, actually. . . . Yes, there has been enormous progress in Iraq. But there are still horrific attacks in Iraq, and you have to stay vigilant. You have to stay after it. This is the kind of fight we're in for the rest of our lives and probably our kids' lives."

My youngest daughter is 5. Assuming she lives to be at least 65, under the Petraeus strategy for Afghanistan the United States would have over 100,000 troops fighting a land war in Asia until at least 2075.

As this already does represent the prevailing strategic thinking in the Army - which is why the media is printing articles on how General Petraeus is buying more time for troops on the ground in Afghanistan. Nothing personal Mr. Ricks, but I'll take the strategic thinking coming from the Navy over the Army 10 times out of 10 when this is the prevailing strategic wisdom of the Army.

I don't know about you, but based on what I have read of Bob Woodward's book - it may end up being the first book I buy just to have a copy of the appendix. Robert Haddick at the Small Wars Journal explains:

Based only on this morning’s accounts from the Washington Post and New York Times, Obama’s Wars’ greatest victim will not be a few bickering staffers but rather President Obama himself. According to Woodward and the newspaper accounts of his book, it was Obama who dictated the detailed specifications of America’s military strategy in Afghanistan. These specifications arrived in the form of a six-page single-spaced "terms sheet," seemingtly drawn up to resemble a legal contract between Obama and his generals. But Obama’s "terms sheet" is apparently a stew of bureaucratic and political compromises among interest groups, not a coherent strategy. Having personally written it, Obama will not be able to blame its inevitable failure on misguided staffers.

This six-page single-spaced "terms sheet" is supposedly listed as an appendix in Bob Woodward's book. I have no idea what it says, but based on the reporting I'm thinking it will not reflect well on the Commander and Chief.