Iran Thoughts

The news that Iran has 4 new mini-submarines is noteworthy, but what I quoted in bold from this article is what was most interesting to me. Noteworthy the Defense News article didn't mention that detail though.

Iran showed off four new domestically made small submarines Sunday that Tehran said would bolster its defence capability as it vows to confront any military threat from countries opposed to its nuclear program.

State-run Press TV showed the submarines sailing from an Iranian port. Iran's fleet of the 120-tonne Ghadir-class vessels, first produced in 2007, now numbered 11, it said.

Eleven huh? It sure would be nice if ONI would discuss that number for us all in next years Iran report. Mini-submarine production never really mattered until the Cheonan incident.

There is a lot of speculation that Israel will attack Iran. Who really knows for sure? What concerns me though is that North Korea has proven that once you have nuclear weapons, you can do things like attack a neighbor with submarines and torpedoes and avoid repercussions.

The reality of that situation doesn't help the argument that suggests Iran would act more responsible if they had nuclear weapons. I understand these are distinct and uniquely complicated issues, but the relationship between the Korea's is no more or less complicated than the relationship between Iran - and say Hezbollah or Hamas.

Which is entirely the point.

I will say one thing though - the terrorist attack on the Japanese super tanker seems to me to be a unique opportunity to expand the discussion with Iran regarding security of the Straits of Hormuz. I think it is a good litmus test for a discussion, because I find it hard to believe that Iran wouldn't have at least some useful information on the incident. The thing about black markets is that usually - not always but often - they are usually working in circles with the same peoples. If they say they don't have any intelligence on the subject then we know their intentions towards security of the straits - which is also a problem for OPEC. If they really don't have any intelligence on the subject - that speaks more towards their capabilities.

The Obama administration's approach to Iran is interesting, but confusing. I think there are still many questions whether it will be productive. Having a topic like this terror attack that would appear to be a mutual interest topic seems appropriate as a broader litmus test.