I have been discussing this issue on Twitter with folks, and had every intention of blogging about the confusion Gates encountered in China tonight - but I don't need to.
This post by Bill Bishop pretty much sums up my thoughts on the issue. Read it. I believe it is the most important thing to come from Gates visit to China, and I'd welcome the opinion of anyone who thinks otherwise.
It isn't China's military technology I am concerned about, at least not today or anytime in the near future. It is how difficult it is to build a relationship on trust with China when you are given every impression that the President of China is probably being dishonest, or disingenuous at best, to your face in a discussion where you sit across from one another. Know your history - this is what the Japanese were like in the 1930s. A fair comparison? It is if your intentions are peaceful and one wants to avoid another Pearl Harbor.
The alternative explanations to the dishonesty theory lead down an even darker path to contemplate. I've long been hopeful regarding the relationship of the US and China, but I don't see progress any time soon, not when it becomes difficult to believe the leadership of China is being honest in face to face conversations. To me, blatant dishonesty in face to face conversations is much more dangerous than the potential capabilities of some new military technology. War is ultimately a political act of human beings, and it is the capabilities demonstrated by humans that concern me more than the capabilities demonstrated by technologies.
President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington, DC just got more interesting, and President Obamas job in that visit just got a lot more difficult. If the President has been looking for his political moment to rise to the occasion, he just found it. If he treats the visit as anything other than the most important event in his Presidency to date, buy defense stocks. That isn't a joke.
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