Wednesday, June 23, 2024

It is Time to Call in General Mattis

As much as I want to discuss some Naval issues in the news, I can't help but write down my thoughts on the McCrystal events that will unfold Wednesday. If you believe, as I do, that the Obama administration will do everything possible to avoid a war with Iran - then the decision President Obama makes on Wednesday will define the legacy of his role as Commander in Chief for his first Presidential term.

There was to be a meeting between General McCrystal and the nations national security leadership on Wednesday anyway - the only difference is that now it will be in person. It would be easy to focus on the politics of Rolling Stones articles. If the President is smart - the focus will be on Afghanistan first.

Before we move forward, lets look back and remember where General McCrystal started. This was how the original McCrystal report laid forth the Afghanistan war.
Although the assessment, which runs more than 20 pages, has not been released, officials familiar with the report have said it represents a hard look at the challenges involved in implementing Obama's strategy for Afghanistan. The administration has narrowly defined its goal as defeating al-Qaeda and other extremist groups and denying them sanctuary, but that in turn requires a sweeping counterinsurgency campaign aimed at protecting the Afghan population, establishing good governance and rebuilding the economy.
In September of last year, I argued this approach was strategic confusion from the outset.
What? Is the strategic objective to defeat al-Qaeda and other extremist groups and deny them sanctuary or is it to protect the Afghan population, establish good governance, and rebuild the economy? Those are two entirely different strategic objectives, but both become the strategic objective when you add the words "that in turn requires a sweeping counterinsurgency campaign."

Counterinsurgency has become the slipper that fits every foot, when in fact military history suggests there are other military strategies for military engagement in failed states when unity governance cannot be achieved or established by an external state.
The McCrystal strategy depends, almost entirely, on the Afghanistan Army and Police forces being stood up and taking control of security of the country. How is that working out? I hope the President asks the question.

The McCrystal strategy also depends on a strong central government in Afghanistan, because without it the population of the country could legitimately be labeled the insurgent. How many tribes support the central government? How many support the Taliban? How many are partners with the ISAF? I hope these are questions the President asks.

Why is there such a disconnect between the Marines and McCrystal in Afghanistan? I'd like to know, I'm sure other observers would like to get McCrystal's take on that. Again, another question for the President.

The way I see it, Obama has several choices. McCrystal either stays or goes. The existing COIN strategy either stays or goes. I personally think the President should allow McCrystal to retire, and a Marine should be put in charge. I also think it is time to draft a strategy to meet the Presidents objectives of defeating al-Qaeda and other extremist groups and denying them sanctuary and give up the central government building exercise that has been completely ineffective - and indeed perhaps counterproductive.

The Marines left Iraq to go to Afghanistan. They wanted it - I hope the President gives it to them. I strongly believe that President Obama needs to pick one of two men - Lieutenant General John R. Allen or General James Mattis. No more West Point COINdinistas guys - it is time to pick a Marine.

It is time to call in General James Mattis.

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