Tuesday, December 22, 2024

Israeli Smoke Signals

Well this is an interesting news story.
Israel will find itself diplomatically sidelined and militarily muzzled as the United States pursues a nuclear deal with Iran next year, according to a closed-door wargame at Israel's top strategic think-tank.
You really should read the full Reuters report on a classified November 1 wargame at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Here are the questions I am left with:
  1. Do we examine the wargame conclusions reported?
  2. Do we examine the reasons a classified wargame conclusions were given to Reuters to be reported?
Giora Eiland does not talk to the media about a classified wargame without approval. No chance of that. I'm at a loss to the purpose of public disclosure, meaning it could mean anything (and several will find the meaning they are looking for).

I have to give the Israeli's credit, they play a clever game of poker. On one side we have a wargame that comes to rational conclusions of a probable future, and on the other we have obviously odd behavior of public media coverage of an important classified wargame. The key here is that the Israeli government doesn't reveal anything - ever - without a reason.

So is this a signal Israel is ready to go along with the US on an eventual path of Iranian nuclear weapons? Is this a signal that Israel has no confidence in the Obama administrations management of the situation? Lots of smoke signals here, but for me, something is lost in translation.

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