Russia and India Reach Final Stage in Gorshkov Negotiations

Every once in awhile I come across some very interesting analysis on the Russian website shipbuilding.ru, and this weeks article by Gennady Nechaev is no exception. The article basically states that Russia and India have reached the moment of decision with the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier, and the last chance for Russia to sell the aircraft carrier to India is approaching in the form of President Medvedev's visit to India scheduled in a few weeks.

The article contemplates the "what ifs" should India decide not to pay the $2 billion price tag Russia is demanding to complete the carrier. Two stand out, the first which the author doesn't think has any real value, is for Russia to keep the carrier. This is not an uncommon position among Russian analysts, given the choice the consensus seems to be a new aircraft carrier would be more of a burden on the Russian fleet at this time than a blessing. Indeed, it seems to be a common view that the Russian desire for six aircraft carriers is Utopian, unrealistic, or worse.

The second option would be to sell the aircraft carrier to China. This is the concluding thought of the analysis, and doesn't dig very deep. I don't think China would buy it, which raises the question, now what?

It is an interesting question to contemplate, raising the possibility that India has more negotiating power than is assumed in this deal. The title of the article is "The Unwanted Carrier" and is very appropriate, because if India doesn't buy it, it raises the question who will actually pay the rest of the money necessary to field the ship, and the answer is ultimately... nobody.

Seems to me that puts India in a very good position, made even better if they can get the Kitty Hawk back on the table as a distant possibility.