The Gorshkov Fine Print

There are some emerging details regarding the Gorshkov deal with India. According to the latest news reports, the delivery has been pushed back to 2012 and India has yet to make any new payments.

Russia today said the delivery of Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier to the Indian Navy would be delayed till 2012 as the vessel could be refitted only sometime in 2010.

It also said that since last year New Delhi has not made any payments although the extra work to the tune of USD 1.7 billion has been done by the shipyard.

The article goes on to highlight a few other details. The launch of the Gorshkov is now said to be around the December time frame, which confirms what we heard last month. The launch is speculated to take place when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visits India later this year. After launch, the carrier will be moored for refitting, and then will conduct sea trials, and eventually aviation trials using the Russian Navy trained crews that currently serve on the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.

India is in a tough spot, they owe $1.7 billion for a carrier that is delayed until 2012. I still wonder what $1.7 billion would do for the soon to be retired USS Kitty Hawk. One would think $1.7 billion would be enough money to put 20 more years into the ship, and probably get the ship in service with the Indian Navy long before Gorshkov would be ready.

If coupled with a major aircraft deal for F/A-18 Super Hornets, it would certainly be a big boost for the defense industry during a time of decreasing defense budgets. It would also boost defense ties in a major way between India and the United States. Considering how important India is to the security of the Indian Ocean region, that last part is clearly where the US would get the biggest boost.

The real question is whether the US should even try to pull off such a deal, and would India go for it? I'm not sure, probably not. I recognize there would be political fallout in relations with Russia, China, and Pakistan if such a deal was made, however if we are being realistic, the only country of the three this has an impact worthy of consideration is China. Is it possible to build closer relations with China and also sell India the Kitty Hawk? If that is possible, that would be the best case scenario. It is difficult, not impossible, to see such a scenario emerge as an option.