The Calm Before the Strategic Storm

As folks disconnected from the Army, well read in military history and military strategy, and always willing to take a back seat to more knowledgeable people on the subject, Afghanistan represents theater and study for us, but rarely something we analyze here on the blog. We do not claim to be experts, rather admirers of the experts and the analysis they give. With the exception of closely observing the 24th MEU, we have not spent much time discussing Afghanistan in the context of the materials usually discussed on the blog, but tonight our thoughts shift towards this theater of war.

The 24th MEU, that single Marine battalion "surged" to Afghanistan has had excellent success on the battlefield in Helmand Province, but the capitalization of the gains made has been less than originally hoped for. The British Provincial Reconstruction Team's are struggling to overcome the challenges of the theater, and while both the Marines and the British do not lose battles, they are losing the war. The security situation, or lack of sustained security in Helmand Province, contributes to the problem. Helmand is one region with a unique set of challenges, in a theater of war with many regions each with many challenges all their own. The challenges are immense, complex, and still not fully understood. In Helmand Province, the Taliban was able to provide more power to the population than the British have been able to. If that remains constant in the future, we will not win Helmand Province. The current strategy is not working, and the reasons are many. NATO as a unified force is not living up to expectations, and something have to change.

In case you have not heard, the Army conducted a 'strategic redeployment' on Wednesday from the base that was attacked earlier this week. The phrase 'strategic redeployment' is synonymous with withdrawal, although as a propaganda victory for the Taliban, it is touted as a defeat of the US military. That isn't accurate, but it does meet a recognizable pattern for the US Army, indeed the US military as a whole prior to recent events in Iraq. The United States Army almost never loses a battle, including this one, but has struggled to win wars.

American forces have abandoned the outpost in northeastern Afghanistan where nine American soldiers were killed Sunday in a heavy attack by insurgents, NATO officials said Wednesday.

The withdrawal handed a propaganda victory to the Taliban, and insurgents were quick to move into the village of Wanat beside the abandoned outpost, Afghan officials said. Insurgents nearly overran the barely built outpost in a dawn raid on Sunday, the most deadly assault for United States forces in Afghanistan since 2005.

The media reports there is a surge coming. The surge will not be major brigade sized deployments, specifically because there are no more brigades to deploy, but will involve a number of smaller forces that are badly needed in Afghanistan. The AP is reporting, but Navy Times carries the story.

Pentagon leaders on Wednesday signaled a surge in U.S. forces in Afghanistan “sooner rather than later,” a shift that could send some units there within weeks, as officials prepare to cut troop levels in Iraq.

Senior military officials are looking across the services to identify smaller units and other equipment that could be sent to Afghanistan, according to a defense official.

"Surge" has achieved buzzword status, and while the gist of the surge is an increase in manpower on the ground in a forward theater, the strategy of a surge is what is important. The current strategy in Afghanistan is not working, and there is no guarantee that the same tactical and doctrinal approaches that worked in Iraq will be effective in Afghanistan. COIN is a conditions based doctrine, the similarities will be generic rather than specific, and we expect to ultimately see different style and substance emerge in Afghanistan.

Religion is too often used as a way to describe culture in nations of southwest Asia, but the similarities in culture between the Afghanistan and Iraq begin and end with Allah, and from there conditions define the unique challenges. Iraq had 20th century infrastructure, Afghanistan is the 13th century with cell phones. Iraqi society included an education, often limited, but evident. Limited education is an upgrade in Afghanistan. Iraq is one of the worlds leading nations of proven oil reserves, while Afghanistan's economy is driven by the scourge of humanity, illegal drugs.

We believe the US has already won in Iraq. People may accuse this blog for being overly optimistic, but we believe we are being realistic. There are many, many reasons, too many to cover, why we believe this, but one anecdotal statistic sticks out that implies the war is over. The death toll of US troops in Iraq in July through right now is eight. That is one fewer soldiers than died in the one firefight in Afghanistan earlier this week. A US soldier is safer in the "war" zone in Iraq than he or she would be in the city of Chicago today, which interestingly enough, may be where some Iraq veterans find themselves in the near future. This is also why we believe the trip to Iraq by Barack Obama isn't a fact finding mission to determine what next, rather we expect him to pledge US support for the Iraqi's through the upcoming election, talk about how good things are in Iraq, shift the discussion towards Afghanistan, and we won't even be surprised at all when Obama returns home to declare victory in Iraq.

The war in Iraq is over, it isn't war anymore, it is reconstruction and security through one more major election, then what we believe can be described as a "fading phase" will begin that disappears US troops gradually from the everyday lives of the Iraqi people.

The war in Afghanistan is where it has always been, and there is a good argument that with brief interludes, things haven't changed much since 1980, if not 1370. With both candidates now focused on Afghanistan, the Army has a clear direction, and it is time for a new strategy. The Army, in the twilight hours of winning its first war since 1945, now faces one of the most daunting challenges any military has ever faced, a comprehensive military and civil grand strategy to turn around a civilization still firmly rooted in a six century death spiral.

Sometimes it is about right time and right place. It is worth noting the US Army has never been in a better position to meet this enormous challenge, the intellectual rigor within the Army towards strategic thinking and problem solving has never been higher, and combined with the experience of both soldier and officer, we believe as a place in time, we are standing in the calm before the strategic storm for Afghanistan.