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The 2008 Annual DoD Report (PDF) for Congress was released early this year, and was very short on details regarding the development of China's submarine force. The only noteworthy comment was that it was assessed the Yuan class was in full production.
However if you observe the first three Yuan class submarines closely, you will observe they are different, and there is yet another Yuan class submarine soon to be launched that is even more distinct in design. The Japanese are well known for taking an evolutionary approach to building their submarine forces, incorporating changes at an evolved pace within the framework of construction of one submarine per year. It would appear China is conducting a similar pattern, except the evolution in the case of the Yuan class is steady for each submarine produced.
Ronald O'Rourke describes the Yuan class well in his report from April 16 (PDF).
Yuan-class (Type 041) SS. China is building a new class of SS called the Yuan (or Type 041) class. The first Yuan-class boat, whose appearance reportedly came as a surprise to western observers,245 was launched (i.e., put into the water for the final stage of construction) in 2004. Observers expect the first Yuan-class boat to enter service in 2006 and the second to enter service in 2009. One source stated in 2007 that in addition to the fist two units in the class, “two further units are currently building at Wuhan [Shipbuilding Industry Co.]. By 2010, boats No. 9 & 10 will likely commission. Twenty of [the] class are expected to be built and [the] Jiangnan Shipyard (Shanghai) is expected to be integrated into [the] programme during 2006 with completion of [the] last ‘Song-II’ class.Because the Yuan class is similar to both the Song class and the Kilo class, the Yuan goes by two names, neither of which originate from any official Chinese source. The lack of any official source or news reporting using the "Type X" designation highlights just how transparent China is not.
Some observers believe the Yuan class is a variant of the Song (Type 039) class design and consequently refer to the Yuan class as the Type 039A. One observer stated in 2007:
There are few details at present but the design appears to exhibit some features of the Song class, although it appears to be shorter and broader, and possibly also of the Russian Kilo class. The design of the fin [i.e., the “conning tower”] is similar to that of the former while a distinctive ‘hump’ on top of a teardrop shaped hull is characteristic of the latter. It is possible therefore that the boat is of double-hulled construction. Fitted with a seven-bladed propeller. It is not known whether an AIP system has been incorporated.
Janes and several other research organizations call the Yuan the Type 041, while several other observers call the Yuan the Type 039A. With the first three Yuan class each obviously distinct based on photography, the question is should we start calling them Type 039A, Type 039B, and Type 039C, and the soon to be launched Type 039D? The increased pace of submarine launches for the Yuan class combined with the physical distinctions highlights a rapidly developing submarine industry, not only in terms of construction but in design as well.
Finally we note that earlier this year someone updated the Yuan class submarine entry on Wikipedia, specifically the propulsion aspect of the article. It is worth a read, although like all things Wikipedia, trust but verify. We have no concrete evidence regarding what kind of propulsion the Yuan class submarine has, but we do observe that with the first Yuan likely to be at sea this year everyone is likely to know for certain.
Because the regulars usually ask, photos from here and here.
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