9 For FY09? Nope: 10

Defense Daily (subscription) ran an article today that included an interview with HASC chairmen Gene Taylor (D-Miss.). The article highlights his agenda for the Navy shipbuilding in 2008 leading into the FY09 budget year.

During an interview shortly before Congress left for its winter recess, Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.), the subcommittee chairman, said his priorities for the new year would be to again include 10 ships to the budget and resolve the LCS situation.

In addition, Taylor said he would press to ensure that language mandating the Navy design its next cruisers with nuclear propulsion systems remains viable and does not get rolled back.

The word "again" for 10 ships is used very loosely by Defense Daily, in fact it is dishonest because 5 of those 'again' ships from FY08 will be counted later. We covered the FY08 Defense bill highlights back in November, what Congress actually did was buy 5 ships, and partially funded the lead costs, the lowest part of the costs, for 5 more 'sometime' in the future. The 5 ships were the second year of two year payments for the first 2 DDG-1000s, 1 Littoral Combat Ship, 1 T-AKE Dry Cargo/Ammunition Ship, a 1 Virginia class submarine.

The other 5 are 3 T-AKE Dry Cargo/Ammunition Ships, only $50 million for a 10th LPD (which we like), and $588 million for the lead costs for the nuclear aspect of a future Virginia Class submarine.

The HASC appears serious about 10 ships in FY09, but it is very unclear what the 10th ship will be. For example, under the original 313-ship plan, the Navy was expected to buy 11 ships in FY09:

1 DDG-1000
1 SSN
1 MPF(F) T-AKE
1 MPF(F) MLP
1 JHSV
6 LCS

We already know there are changes to the LCS and LPD programs, and we can expect 9 ships:

1 DDG-1000
1 SSN
1 MPF(F) T-AKE
1 MPF(F) MLP
1 JHSV
2 LCS
1 LPD
1 T-AKE

It will be interesting to see what the President's budget says, and how Gene Taylor reacts. It became pretty clear last year that Taylor, not the Navy, is driving the boat. The Navy didn't get a lot of things they wanted in FY08, and when Winter canceled LCS 4 Taylor ended up getting everything he wanted. While one would think the Navy would buy the 2nd SSN partially funded in FY08, I'm hearing the industry would prefer to wait and start building 2 at a time in FY11, starting with the very impressive SSN-774 Block IIIs.

The only hull designs with open shipbuilding lines for the Navy right now are:

a) CVN
b) DDG-1000
c) LCS
d) LPD
e) T-AKE

Given the choices, I'll take option F and guess the US Navy buys one of those National Security Cutters with a different kit in FY09. Why? When Gene Taylor says 10 ships he means 10, not 9. To get to 10, since the Navy can't afford any of the above platforms it means the Navy will have to go with the NSC, coincidently built in Mississippi. The NSC, or Navy version National Security Frigate isn't a bad option, but it sure would have been nice for the Navy to have had some vision and seen what the rest of us have watched coming. A design for a small combatant other than the LCS sure would be handy right about now.

You can read the Defense Daily article here (DOC).