Monday, February 25, 2024

A Strategy That Fails To Convince

Effective transformation requires that organizations address four specific considerations: the geostrategic setting (the context for transformation), the ends (the purpose of the organization), the ways (the methods that the organization uses to achieve those ends), and the means (the resources used to accomplish the ways). This approach of “context, ends, ways, means” provides a holistic, coherent approach to transforming an organization; without it, an organization does not truly transform.

The context provides the purpose for undergoing transformation. It could be the geostrategic setting or perhaps an emerging technology or method that demands dramatic, innovative change. For the United States, the context of the geostrategic setting changed dramatically in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent downfall of the Soviet Union. Today we still grapple with the impact of those changes—and the world keeps changing while we contemplate the end of the Cold War. Regardless of whether one believes that the world is shaped according to the “core” and the “gap,” as does Barnett, or by a “clash of civilizations,” as does Samuel Huntington, or the myriad other ways of depicting the world, we do not have a bipolar world on the edge of a superpower confrontation—at least not today. Since the world has changed dramatically, the military must do so as well or become irrelevant.

Organizations generally don’t have the luxury of setting the strategic context, but they do have a choice in their reaction to contextual change. Once the context is determined, three approaches—one of which is transformation—address the changing needs of large, complex organizations (similar to changes in the business world). The approaches, which deal with the ends (purpose or product), ways (methods), or means (technology and resources), include transforming the organization’s purpose (focusing on ends), reengineering its methods (focusing on ways), or downsizing or “rightsizing” its technology and resources (focusing on means).
Military Transformation: Ends, Ways, and Means, Dr. Jack D. Kem, Colonel, USA, Retired

In the time of Rumsfeld, the use of the word transformation was often substituted for the word strategy, as they were seen interchangeable by those who believed in transformation. The new Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower failed to mention the word transformation, even once, highlighting a way ahead that substitutes strategy for transformation, as it should be. However, in evaluation of the Navy's maritime strategy we observe it is incomplete, as it only truly forms part of a strategy. The Maritime Strategists within the Navy attempt to reject this criticism, which we continue to find strange as I have recently observed they admit as much themselves.

From the release of the Maritime Strategy we observed an overwhelming rejection of it. First it was the blogosphere led by CDR Salamander, he did what needed to be done, used the proverbial scissors that cut away the fat and left only the substance. CDR called it 6-6-3, and the name stuck. The Navy then took their strategy on the road, a "Conversation With the Country" they call it, and to describe the reception to date as lukewarm is to be polite.

On this road show the 3 services introduce the strategy, explain it, and find few believers among the audience. In introduction of these conversations the presenter begins by highlighting the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower is but only 1/3 of the total strategy, with the classified NSP and CONOP (NOC) forming a trilogy that makes up the whole of the Maritime Strategy. This follows a predictable pattern the Navy should have been prepared for.

When the Maritime Strategy was introduced to the internet masses, it was quickly labeled an incomplete strategy, and naturally the Navy didn't like it. This process was repeated with Congress who called it a "really slick brochure". The Navy has since introduced their document as only 1/3 of the strategy in its conversations in person which has also been received less than favorably, after which we observe the Navy defending themselves because no one believes in their work as a strategy. Among the few impressed by the strategy is Kaplan, who calls it a “strategy of elegant decline". Ouch.

We believe it is time to look at the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower for what it is, an incomplete strategy that consists of a "Strategy of the Ends" (purpose or product), a "Strategy of the Ways" (methods), with a "set of priorities" as guidance for executing the strategy. We believe this is accurate, because as everyone, particularly Congress, has observed the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower is absent a "Strategy of the Means", a strategy that outlines a fleet; and that is one of several problems that reduces the value of the document as a strategy.

Building upon the outline of the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower we observe the "Strategy of the Ends" to include six purposes; Limit regional conflict with forward deployed, decisive maritime power; Deter major power war; Win our Nation's wars; Contribute to homeland defense in depth; Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners; and Prevent or contain local disruptions before they impact the global system as explained. We observe these ends to be excellent within the context of strategy, but alone they do not constitute a strategy.

We then observe the "Strategy of the Ways" to be six methods; Forward Presence; Deterrence; Sea Control; Power Projection; Maritime Security; and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response as explained. Again, we observe these to be excellent methods to be applied in the pursuit of a comprehensive strategy, but alone they do not constitute a strategy.

Finally we observe the three guiding priorities to be Improve Integration and Interoperability, Enhance Awareness, and Prepare our People as explained. We support the Navy in identifying the priorities that will help execute the maritime strategy, but it is important to point out, alone, or in combination with the ends and means above, this does not constitute a strategy.

Within this context we observe the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower to be an incomplete strategy, one that leaves a reader looking for a Strategy of the Means. The people, like Congress, want to discuss that aspect of a maritime strategy, and most importantly, they want that aspect of the new maritime strategy to match the ends and ways as laid out as 6-6-3.

Does the 313-Ship Plan do that? Are there any defenders of the 313-ship plan who believe it aligns itself with the strategy produced? If the Navy polled an audience that question at one of these "Conversations with the Country", what percentage of the audience would believe the 313-ship plan aligns itself with the strategy? I'd bet money the percentage would be very low, because the community of this blog is a good sample of those who would make up that audience and supporters for the 313-ship plan are few indeed.

We suggest few believe that the 313-ship plan for the future constitution of the fleet aligns with the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower. We believe the defenders of the 313-ship plan do it solely for the sake of preventing further shipbuilding inflation. We believe the desire by the Navy to bring stability to the shipbuilding industry is driving the process for retaining annual shipbuilding orders under the 313-ship plan, and yet it is the lack of orders for more ships within the 313-ship plan that is reducing the shipbuilding capacity of the nation. We also note the annual shipbuilding plan changes in Congress anyway, so the Navy desire for stability appears to be a false hope.

Many who want to connect with the strategy saw the focused, directed, stated 1986 Maritime Strategy as the American way, because it stated and confronted the challenges facing our nation. Many have asked how the Navy can so clearly define the ends (purpose) and ways (method) if they can't even clearly and specifically define the challenges (name thy evil). In that way, it is often noted that the lack of clear definition for challenges gives the Navy flexibility to shape the “means” any way they see fit. As long as the Navy can define the threats and challenges in secret or on demand, the Navy can define the means in public any way they want without defending their position based on strategy.

In this way, it is easy for the Navy to say the 313-ship plan meets the challenges of the Maritime Strategy. It is why we will soon have the DDG-1000 ready for action to meet the challenges of the 21st century, you know, the challenges that aren't identified in the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower.

As a stockholder in the Navy, I believe it is time the Navy starts talking about the “Strategy of the Means” that aligns itself with the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower in a way stockholders, also known as taxpayers, can believe in. In a few weeks the Navy will to sit down in front of Congress and talk about the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower, and we do not expect that process to go well for the Navy.

Congress has expectations of the Navy, they desire a “Strategy of the Means” to define the requirements of the Navy shaped in strategy that guides Congress in the process to fund new ships. Because the “Strategy of the Means” is absent in the Maritime Strategy, the ends and ways as represented by 6-6-3 will mean little to Congress, and has meant little to date. There is a division of labor here, and the Navy is going to have to step up if it wants to sell its strategy. Until the Navy produces a “Strategy of the Means,” Congress will not be interested in the ends and ways outlined in the Navy's maritime strategy, which allows Congress to do its own thing with shipbuilding money again, as should be expected when there us no public intellectual basis they are beholden to by the stockholders (voters).

Over the coming days and weeks we intend to explore the Maritime Strategy further, and utilize Julian Corbett’s chapter on the Theory of the Means in terms of fleet constitution to reinforce why a “Strategy of the Means” needs to be produced to tackle the challenges of the 21st century. We outright reject that strategies for fleets need to be classified, it argues in the face of over 200 years of open government. One would imagine with all the DoD emphasis of "Sea Enterprise" and application of business practices, the Navy would have learned about business communication strategies for stockholders. The stockholders need to believe they are getting a return on investment if the business is it to retain the investment. The Navy's stockholders are taxpayers, also known as voters, and as things stand today, taxpayers do not have the information necessary to advocate for further investment in a time of competing interests for national defense investments.

Some might say I'm being harsh; the crew thinks so. I plead guilty, however I am also aware of some very well written intellectual contributions soon to be released in the open source which raises excellent questions of the new Maritime Strategy, so this discussion isn't going away, in fact it will soon get much louder, and much smarter.

When All You Can See Is Conspiracy

As you may or may not have heard, last week the Greek frigate Bouboulina (F 463) responded to an SOS by a Russian Navy repair ship, the PM 138, when the repair ship lost power during a heavy storm. The rescue by all accounts was a success, involving a tug and the frigate, the Russian ship was towed to port where repairs were made. The Russian Naval vessel has departed port and is back to sea.

As observers of such maritime incidents, we didn't think much of it, but a comment made on the excellent militaryphotos.net forum caught our attention the other day, and while it was an interesting side note, we didn't think much of it. That doesn't stop Debka though, who loves to make news from rumor, and had no trouble breaking out the black helicopters.
DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that the Russian Amur 1 Class PM 138 naval boat, caught up in the heavy storm raging across the Middle East and Mediterranean last week, flashed a distress signal Tuesday Feb. 19. The vessel was on its way from a Syrian port to Sevastopol on the Black Sea when it was thrown off course by the high seas. A Greek Navy frigate responded to the call and escorted the PM 138 to the island of Chios.
The Russian Navy spokesmen said the ship’s crew numbered 99. It was unarmed and was heading for home port after a long stay at one of the Syrian Navy’s Mediterranean bases.

Ya well Debka's military sources are, as usual, questionable. First we note the ship was with two other auxiliary ships that deployed for the recent Admiral Kuznetsov deployment, so the ship has hardly been stalking the Israeli coast as implied. The other two ships, the tanker Iman and the fleet tug SB-36, both made a port of call in Algeria back on January 22nd.

Second we note there was a comment made on the excellent militaryphotos.net forum about 16 hours prior to the DEBKA story that questioned if this was a spy ship. We don't know whether PM 138 is a spy ship or not, but we observe that the only known open source photography of the ship since the rescue were taken off Chios island, and it is observed the Greek frigate HS Psara (F 454) (note MEKO class, different ship than the rescue ship) appears to be in the picture. Those pictures are excellent quality, but we do not see the smoking gun evidence that Debka does. Maybe you can, we leave this for the reader to decide, as the pictures can be found in the same militaryphotos.net thread.

From our POV, this looks like Debka military disinformation.

From the Department of Duh

From the newspaper of record I present the naval analysis by the New York Times.

Several recent events, from an eagle-eyed spotting of an image on Google Earth to an overt military delivery from Russia, suggest that China is continuing its rapid expansion of a submarine fleet that would be particularly useful in a conflict with the United States over Taiwan, analysts and military officials said.

I can't say there is anything in this article that is new, or interesting, but I do think it is important something like this gets into the New York Times. We are rapidly approaching a news cycle where China's submarine fleet growth is going to be the discussion. The rate of increase is going to be difficult to ignore, and as one year comparison go, we are in the middle of a really good year for PLAN growth.

In the Office of Naval Intelligence Chinese Navyreport last year, I believe it was released last April, the report highlighted 55 submarines for the PLAN. In the report Taiwan released as its 2007 review in December, it identified 60 submarines. According to those who watch the shipyards, there have been 2 submarines put to sea since the new year, meaning the number could be as high at 62 today.

If that number holds, and it could certainly go up, China will have built 7 new submarines in a single year, with no sign of letting down and NONE of those submarines imported by Russia, vs the US Navy's one annual submarine construction rate. Wait until they start talking about frigates and destroyers, much less if the DoD decides to provide an exact number of Tye 022s. Unless I'm missing something, China has put to sea something like 20 ships and submarines since last year, and while not all are combatants, 20 isn't a low number and there is no evidence the rate of construction is slowing down.

Quantity has a quality all its own. I read the ONI report again over the weekend, and this stuck out under the PLAN submarine training section. (Page 37)

The old concept of single submarines departing early in the morning and returning late on the same day was replaced with the concept of multiple submarines conducting navigation training together over multiple days throughout the day and night.

The old concept of single submarines conducting independent training was replaced with multiple submarines attacking as a task force.

The PLAN replaced the old basic training method of simple and redundant training with mission-oriented training subjects.

The old method of training on single submarine tactics per sortie was replaced with training on several ombined-arms tactics simultaneously in a combined-arms environment.

Everywhere I read lately, "multiple submarines" and "training as a task force" seems to pop out. In modeling the PLAN for simulation, if this isn't streetfighter and wolfpacks. then what is it?

Saturday, February 23, 2024

Observing the Daily Discussions

How was your first week XO? Check out YankeeSailor's first week on the job as XO of the USS Russell (DDG 59). It is a nice wrap up to the intercept of US 193.

Also interesting is the interview with the USS Lake Erie (CG 70) CO at Navy Times.

This Sevmash shipyard story isn't getting the attention it should. If a shipyard is willing to dismiss the largest commercial export shipbuilding contract in Russia, I wonder what India is expecting in regards to that aircraft carrier being built there?

Japan returns to action in the Indian Ocean.

SecDef visits Australia. F-22A is in play?

Bring on more SINKEX? That is what the story says. I know so many of you, like me, are huge fans of the SINKEX at a time when the fleet continues to reduce numbers. The Navy Times reports 2 Spruance class destroyers and the USS Forrestal are among the list.

It sure would be nice if we didn't sink the reserve, but hey, who needs a reserve right? I somehow forgot to post this the other day; the following chart was included with the FY09 budget, which includes many but not all the ships expected to be discarded by SINKEX.


The Story Behind the Story

In observing the recovery of the two F-15Cs that crashed earlier this week in the Gulf of Mexico, I found a few bits of the rescue interesting. As David Axe notes, the USAF used a CV-22 and a AC-130 to help locate the pilots. He makes some excellent points about both platforms in that regard.

While it is unclear if they were useful in the recovery, the story of the survivor is also interesting.

Lynn Haven boat captain Thomas Niquet said he just followed the trail of wreckage Wednesday to rescue an Air Force pilot downed in the Gulf of Mexico.

“We started finding pieces of the plane, then we found the life raft, and about 30 minutes later, we found him,” Niquet said. “He still had his sunglasses on, man. I don’t know how they do it, but those sunglasses don’t come off for nothing.”

The story goes on to highlight another rarely discussed platform recovered the pilot from this civilian boat, the FSF-1 Sea Fighter sent a RHIB over to recover the pilot, and eventually support his transfer to the Coast Guard and medical attention.

BZ to these civilians of the Nina who assisted in the rescue of this airman.

We find it interesting it is usually this type of non-mission specific context the Sea Fighter finds itself into the news. Duncan Hunter must be frustrated, but at the end of the day this is either the most overrated platform in the Navy, or the most underutilized. Either way, right place at the right time is appropriate to describe its role here, swimming in the Gulf of Mexico for a downed airman is a fast way to hypothermia, speed means a great deal in surviving exposure to the sea, and minutes can mean life or death in too many sea regions during the winter.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to the family and friends of 1st Lt. Ali Jivanjee. Excellent coverage here and here.

Air Force Times also covers the story from top to bottom here.