Georgia Update - New Map

Reader Joseph Kern has sent in a map updated with a guesstimate of the ground activity taking place in Georgia. Joseph created the APP6 map symbols himself, and is not providing this as a statement of accuracy, rather as a general guide to get a sense of the action unfolding.



The map and symbols are shared under a Creative Commons: Attribution, Share Alike license.

Obseving the Russian Offensive

Reuters is reporting on the offensive inside of Georgia.

Russian troops have entered Georgia's Black Sea port of Poti, an oil and cargo shipping centre, Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said on Monday.

"According to our information, Russian troops have entered Poti, as well as being in Senaki and Zugdidi," he said in a televised address, referring to two other towns in western Georgia.

I have circled these cities on the map using the rather crude mspaint, so forgive my sloppy display. I have also put up the map without markings for comparisons. Note the railroads and the roads. Russian ground strategy appears to be very well coordinated.

Click images for Hi-Resolution

As we have been surfing the Russian blogs, diaries, and news sources, some things have been popping up that have caught our attention.

- The Georgian Army has been disabled in terms of its communications. The military communication systems have been compromised. This has created a lot of confusion among the troops, often described as chaos. The Georgian Army is not trained to operate under conditions of communications disruption.

- Russia is keeping the International Red Cross and other such agencies from working within the territories their troops are operating in, including South Ossetia. There may be a number of reasons ranging from assuming ownership of the medical care of citizens for national reasons, but also to conceal casualty numbers both civilian and military.

- There is some complaining on the Russian side regarding Israel. While virtually all media blames the Ukraine for every weapon system that kills a Russian soldier or any civilian, there is some sort of anti-vehicle weapon that locals are suggesting is Israeli in origin, and it is apparently lethal. We searched arms databases for exports and couldn't come up with anything, it may not be Israeli. There is a rumor circulating that some 50 armored vehicles and tanks have been destroyed by this weapon. The Russian UN ambassador was reportedly asked about it in the press conference today. I have not seen a transcript, but he reportedly did not answer the question.

- Russian military casualties appear to be high, and we note the number is being concealed intentionally. We are reminded of Afghanistan here. Georgian military casualties are very high, but they are spinning the numbers for political purposes. It will be up to international organizations to reveal the real numbers.

- There are a number of rumors circulating. POWs on both sides being executed is a popular rumor. There is a remarkable lack of reporting regarding POWs. There is a rumor in western Georgia that troops from Abkhazia have threatened to kill all Georgians wearing a uniform who don't surrender.

We Recommend:

• Small Wars Journal
• Excercises in Translation
• Robert Farley's Coverage
  
• Global Voices
• Zenpundit
• Danger Room
• OP-FOR
  

Will update links as we find them this evening.

Black Sea Naval News - Quick Update

Don't have good net access to verify the video, but...

This video supposedly confirms what I said yesterday, the Georgian Project 206 "Matka" missile cutter "Tblisi" was sunk in action at sea.

Maybe one of you zoomies can explain something for me. Why are Tu-160s flying sorties over Georgia? Do these things have conventional capabilities now? Check out this media report, run it through your Google Translator if you don't speak Russian, and let me know what you think.

I thought these were nuke bombers only. Maybe one of our readers will translate the article in comments. I would, but translations from my phone? You are asking too much...

And yes, that is a USAF in the picture. This is supposedly a photo of some Georgian troops returning from Iraq.

More Black Sea Naval Action Reporting

Russian news is now reporting that the Black Sea Fleet sunk not one, but two Georgian patrol vessels. The first boat sunk is claimed to be a 205 missile boat, while the second boat is claimed to be the Georgian patrol boat project 1400 M "Grif". The article includes a quote from the Russian statement on the naval action.

The use of force will be carried out in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter in order to realize the inherent right to self defense.

An unconfirmed report here suggests "the Russian boats "Mirazh", "Kasimov" and the R-109 expended 2 "Malakhit" missiles (SS-N-9s), one Osa missile (presumably a SA-N-4 in surface to surface mode) and 50 76mm rounds sinking the boat."

Is that information credible? Not sure, LiveJournal is widely used by a number of Russian armed service folks involved in the actions in Georgia. We have followed a lot of LiveJournal activity over the weekend, and a lot of it has turned out to be good information. This is unverified information, but worth a mention.

Russia Stands at the Crossroads

The world has sent a signal to Russia, your strategic objectives are acceptable. There does not appear to be any view from any particular nation suggesting opposition other than rhetoric in regards to the Russian occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The only questions yet to to find answers are in regards to what other objectives Russia may have, and if they intend to follow through in achieving all of those objectives?

As of this writing Russia is engaged in the systematic destruction of the town of Gori, although no reason has been offered why. We have already witnessed the destruction of Tskhinvali. Blame both sides, Georgia for the initial action, and Russia has made choices with artillery that simply can't be dismissed easily. Both sides carry the burden of indiscriminate killing in this campaign. To date this has been a war fought mostly with artillery, and Russia has more guns.

I don't want to give the impression I'm picking sides here, because objectively, I find it impossible to do so. I will give some idea of what I'm saying. This is a typical report emerging in the Russian media. This one is in English, expect a lot of stories like this.

“When cleaning out debris in a house, fragments of cassette bombs were found. It is an illegal weapon which should never be used against civilians. And the Georgians’ use of multiple launch rocket systems is also inhuman. It proves the genocide of the Ossetian people, which is going on for centuries, is continuing. It is beyond understanding how Saakashvili could have shot peacekeepers. Evacuation is full of dangers. You have a 30 per cent chance of surviving,” said Yury Beteev from Osininform information agency.

For context, prior to the announcement that Georgia would withdraw from Tskhinvali, Russia shelled the city all night in what one independent journalists described as "a fireworks display that ran all night long." At sunrise the next day, Georgia began retreating and Reuters has been running pictures of dead Georgian soldiers in the streets of Tskhinvali ever since.

Note the peacekeeper comment in the statement above. While it got buried in the reporting after the war started, that comment from all indications is correct. Georgian special forces killed or captured dozens of peacekeepers for the purposes of moving the artillery and rocket launchers into place to attack the city at the start of the campaign. What is a democracy that kills peacekeepers for the purpose of starting a war worth? These are the serious questions we must weigh in observing this conflict.

The RussiaToday article continues.

“Our reconnaissance planes detect Georgian troops and forces of the second echelon. They are reserves that’ll be deployed against Tskhinvali and in other directions, and they are our targets. We strike them and in such cases Georgians distort facts - they name villages, cities, communities located in the proximity, saying the Russian air force targets them. With full responsibility I can state that Russia has not targeted a single village,” said Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Defence Ministry spokesman.

This almost suggests Russia intends to destroy the rest of the Georgian Army as an objective. By now we have all heard the UN testimony regarding what sounds like a potential leadership removal objective. We opened this piece highlighting that Russia is shelling the city of Gori as of this writing, and has been for many hours. News reports out of Georgia and Russia are reporting citizens are in a mass exodus of the city. There is a very large forest fire that is burning wildly out of control, and will wipe out many outlining areas around Gori.

With Russia in complete command of the campaign, the questions we ask differ from those of Stratfor. Stratfor is suggesting the conflict is shifting from military to political. With forces still flowing towards Georgia, we tend to think Russia has a slightly different option. Up until this point all objectives for Russia have been strategic, essentially you can describe the entire strategic intent of Russia as to secure the southern flank of Russia. The question not answered is whether objectives are also economic. In other words, rather than a shift from military objectives to political objectives for Russia as Stratfor is suggesting, we are now curious whether Russia transitions from strategic objectives towards economic objectives.

As observers looking at the strategic implications, it seems to us Russia's strategic objectives of consolidating the provinces are within the context of acceptable outcomes from the worlds point of view, but if this campaign shifts towards economic objectives specific to the oil pipelines and oil and gas regions of Georgia, one would think that is when we begin discussing red lines.

American Taken Prisoner in South Ossetian - Updated

An American has been taken prisoner by the Russian military. The American, noted to be African American, is thought to be one of the American trainers working in Georgia for the United States. The article notes he is being transfered to Vladikavkaz for further questioning.

Have not seen this in English yet, Russian article here. (H/T Rob Farley)

Update: Article in life.ru about the US POW, with bogus photo.

Update2: Until I see something worth posting, check comments this thread and I'll be translating some Russian headlines tonight. We had intended to theme China this week, but I'm just not in the mood... yet.

Although, if your surfing the internet looking for something Navy centric outside the Black Sea, open Google Earth and search for "Jianggezhuang Naval Base". Google Earth updated the commercial satellite image last week. The satellite image is dated December 5, 2007. Just look, you'll figure out why real quick. Yes, that is the Xia, not in dry dock. I counted 2 Han and 1 Shang, but I'm a total amateur at satellite study. Maybe Sean will let us know.


----

Some of the English Language stuff we are following.

Global Voices Online

Oleg Panfilov <- In Poti (not English, noted for my own purposes) Excercises in Translation

News Coverage:

Small Wars Journal

Lawyers, Guns, and Money <- Anyone else besides me think Robert Farley has earned some sort of award for his coverage of this? Noah Shachtman - Danger Room

Any New York Times article reported by Andrew E. Kramer, Anne Barnard and C. J. Chivers. These guys have been the best we have seen. This latest one appears to be symbolic of a Russian middle finger to the west.

Photo of the day.

Update on Russian Naval Activity - Afternoon Update

Iranian media is both reporting the 295th Sulinsky Missile Boat Battalion engaged a Georgian Patrol Boat in the Black Sea and sunk it. The Georgian boat reportedly attacked with rockets, but was reportedly unsuccessful in hitting any Russian vessels. There is no indication what weapon sank the Georgian patrol vessel, indeed it sounds like a close range encounter and could have been guns.

Reuters has the breaking news in English.

Russia's navy on Sunday sank a Georgian boat carrying missile launchers after a skirmish at sea, news agencies quoted the defence ministry as saying.

Georgian boats had made two attempts to attack Russian ships which "returned fire, as a result of which one of the Georgian boats launching the attack sank", agencies quoted the ministry as saying.

There are no reports on survivors. Early speculation in Russia is that the vessel was the Tbilisi (თბილისი), a Soviet era 206MR project boat obtained by Ukraine in 1999, and one of two missile boats Georgia has. The Georgian Navy has 19 vessels, but only two ships are armed with missiles including the Tbilisi. That information is speculative, not verified.

Also of note is Russian Television is reporting the three Alligator class amphibious assault ships are conducting "humanitarian" operations off the coast of Ochamchire, in support of what Russian TV is calling "reinforcing peacekeepers." While very interesting, what doesn't make sense is how these three ships could possibly land the 4000 troops Georgia is claiming is already in Ochamchire. At most the three BDKs could move a battalion of Marines with all three ships combined, roughly 1300 men total.

If 4000 Russian troops have indeed found their way to Ochamchire as the Georgians claim, then it is probable the remainder of troops are not arriving by sea, rather they used the railroad system the Russian troops reportedly repaired during the "exercises" taking place last month. Georgia is claiming these troops are preparing to move towards the crucial energy port city of Poti.

Time will tell.

Update on Russian Naval Activity

RussiaToday, an English language news site with questionable credibility in the past, had an update a few hours ago regarding Black Sea Fleet activity.

The Russian Navy has confirmed that a section of its Black Sea Fleet is en route to the Georgian coastline. The task force includes a missile cruiser. Military officials insist the operation is to help refugees and is not part of an operation to blockade Georgia.

According to a source in the Russia’s defense ministry, three assault ships were earlier sent to the same destination.

Previous information had indicated that both the Moskva and the Kerch were both out of port as of yesterday afternoon. Latest reports confirm the second group consists of the warships Moskva and Smetlivy, and they have made port in Novorossiisk. Smetlivy is a Kashin Mod class destroyer. While the Reuters report makes it sound like the Russian Navy is not near Ochamchire, Georgian officials suggest ships are there. Essentially, things aren't zero sum at sea, and there are multiple naval groups at sea including apparently off the Georgian coast.

This confirms the Moskva, but not the Kerch we discussed yesterday. That may imply the Kerch is part of operations elsewhere. It is unclear what three assault ships had been sent earlier, nor what escorts may be with them, but we believe our earlier analysis of large troop transports and not amphibious ships was accurate.

There are three older Alligators and four Ropucha class assault ships in the Black Sea Fleet. Several media reports are reporting a Georgian government statement that 4000 troops were part of the first group of troop transports sent to Ochamchire, and have already landed. Even if all seven ships were fully loaded they could not carry 4000 troops, thus we do not believe the ships sent were the LSTs in the Black Sea Fleet. Some combination of a large commercial ship and LSTs? Perhaps.

Yesterday some Ukrainians looking down into the Ukrainian port had an entry regarding a lot of activity around three Ropucha class assault ships. It is unclear if this is part of the second naval force supposedly dispatched, and there have been no updates regarding those ships. One thing is clear, the Ukraine isn't excited about being a forward operating naval base for "Russian aggression" against Georgia. Ukraine has threatened to block any ships in the Black Sea Fleet helping in the Russian campaign from returning to port.

It is unclear how much this would effect Russian naval operations, but it could be a factor logistically. While Russia has been working its Black Sea Fleet in exercises for the last year, there is a legitimate question whether the Russian Navy can keep their ships logistically supplied at sea for long periods. Where will the Russian logistics ships get fuel for the naval force? Could this be done in Adler? While this won't prevent Russia from moving forces into Abkhazia, it could create logistics problems for the Russian Navy. One thing is clear, this war has exposed Russian weaknesses in the Black Sea with its basing situation in Sevastopol.

Despite Russian claims otherwise, the Russian Navy is interdicting maritime traffic to Georgia. This is one such report.

The Navy of the Russian Federation today appeared to have taken a further escalatory step in its aggressive war against Georgia. “The Russian Navy is imposing an illegal blockade on Georgia,” said Alexander Lomaia, Secretary of National Security Council of Georgia, late on Saturday. Over the last 48 hours, Russian naval vessels have turned back several ships bound for Georgia with humanitarian supplies.

“Today,” said Lomaia, “the Russian Navy intercepted Lotus I, a Moldovan-flagged merchant vessel carrying wheat.” The ship was turned away, denying the Georgian population an essential food shipment.

It would appear official government reports that there is not a blockade taking place would be false. For the most part, Russia has been consistently honest about what they are doing, they have not hid that Russia intends to essentially secure Abkhazia and South Ossetian. However, the Russian press quoted a Russian government official stating there would be no blockade of Georgia, a blockade is an act of war and Russia is engaged in peacekeeping operations. Well, turns out maybe the limit of Russian peacekeeping is rapidly approaching with the withdrawal of Georgian troops from South Ossetian, and the phase for war is about to begin.

Russia clearly controls the ball now. The question is how far will the push, and will the world do anything once it is clear Russia decides to push beyond the red lines.

Withdraw

Local press reports are suggesting Russia shelled all night and completely destroyed the city. The same sources are saying the Georgia Army has been given orders to withdraw from Tskhinvali, supposedly the withdraw began at 5:00am local time.

More than 100 Georgian solders were reportedly killed by the all night artillery. The city is reported to be completely destroyed. Civilian casualties are reportedly very high.

We should know with the morning news.

Update: AP Confirms.

Russia Lands Troops By Sea

The New York Times is reporting the Russian naval force dispatched from the Black Sea Base in the Ukraine will be landing Russian troops in Ochamchire, a port city in the disputed territory of Abkhazia.

The conflict between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia moved toward full-scale war on Saturday, as Russia sent warships to land ground troops in the disputed territory of Abkhazia and broadened its bombing campaign across Georgia...

Russia also notified Western governments that it was moving ships of its Black Sea fleet to Ochamchire, a port on the Abkhaz coast. Georgian officials said they expected Russian troops to land there.

There are some interesting considerations here. There are no reports of what type of ships are transporting Russian troops and equipment, but we can do some guessing. Based on what we have been hearing, while possible, we do not believe these are the Ropucha class LSTs that the Ukrainian bloggers have been noting, rather these are more likely some prepositioning ships Russia had prepared. Depending upon the number of ships, it could potentially be anywhere from a battalion or two, or perhaps a brigade or two. Unverified reports suggest the number is around 4,000. There are still no good press reports regarding the size of the naval force that deployed from the Ukraine, although it has been reported that both Cruisers at the Black Sea Base put to sea.

On July 31st, it was reported that Russia had completed a major railroad to Ochamchire, so it would appear this will be a major Russian logistics base.

While the tracks were repaired and peace negotiations stalled, the Russian military has been running major military maneuvers Kavkaz-2008 in the North Caucasus close to the Georgian border since July 15. It was announced that some 8,000 servicemen, 700 pieces of armor and artillery, and 30 aircraft are taking part in the exercises that officially are to prepare for encounters with terrorists. But there have been reports in the Russian press that the number of troops is substantially higher (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, July 18). The maneuvers involve airborne, motor-rifle and mountain troops of the North Caucasian Military District as well as paratroopers from the 76th airborne division from Pskov and marines of the Black Sea and Caspian fleets. Paratroopers were deployed on the border with South Ossetia on the Roki and Mamisoni mountain passes of the main Caucasian ridge. The paratroopers were reinforced by mechanized and mountain troops. Black Sea fleet marines landed near Adler, supported by airpower and Black Sea battle ships firing artillery and antiaircraft missiles—all, allegedly, to prepare to fight “terrorists” (ITAR-TASS, July 23).

That report linked above is a must read in full, interesting it was written a week before the war.

Ochamchire does not have good port facilities that we know about, so it could be that Russia has deployed engineering and other forces to build a logistics bridge from sea into Abkhazia there to prepare for further follow on forces. This sounds a bit like Russia intends to set up a fast ferry system from Adler to Ochamchire. Adler is the closest port city in Russia to Abkhazia, and based on the exercises last month it could be there are still plenty of troops to facilitate logistics and military operations in support of a major campaign. Setting up a logistics bridge would allow Russia to quickly and safely transport any equipment to Ochamchire, thus bypassing over 100 miles of tough terrain through Abkhazia.

For perspective, Ochamchire is about 40 miles from the critical Georgian port city of Poti, which has taken a pounding by the Russian air force.

Georgia Bulldogs, Not Paper Tigers

Given the fog of war, the American press is doing a fairly decent job sorting out the nonsense and reporting the action in Georgia. The only problem they face is the constantly conflicting reports that make it difficult to truly evaluate what is legitimate. This is not easily done, the expected loser here is Georgia, so reporters are hanging out with the expected winner Russia. Both states are controlling information and are consistently reporting both accurate and inaccurate information. This is a real challenge for US media, indeed we read foreign language press and often the reporting is much worse.

For good mostly English blog sources of unfolding events, we recommend a few blogs that are doing some translation for English speakers.

The Vineyard of the Saker
Russia Blog < -- Russian slant, but good for perspective Armenia and the South Caucasus

We will keep looking for other blogs that do translation, but tonight we thought we would update some of our observations.

The internet is still on in Georgia. Russian cyber attacks have been disruptive, but have not been able to keep Georgia from leveraging the internet as an intelligence tool. Russia appears to have targeted the .ge domain for specific government websites, and are pounding the Georgian military networks, but other websites in Georgia in org, net, and other domains are still up, sporadically. This tends to imply Russia is using a targeted attack on government but is not targeting the country as a whole. We note Russia has not been able to eliminate bandwidth, but are jamming a lot of satellite, again sporadicly. Some news sites are still up, but we note mirror updating for other sites is sporadic at best.

We note in particular Russia has a serious intelligence problem with its Black Sea Naval base in the Ukraine. Whoever these guys in the Ukraine are they might as well set up a web cam, because there are some Ukrainian sources giving updates almost every 2-3 hours on activities there. I don't know much about this naval base, but apparently one can look down into the naval base and watch the activity? Is that right?

For the most part, the Ukrainians have strong feelings both ways on this. A lot of pro-Russia, a lot of anti-Russia. In general when talking about Georgia we haven't observed much passion, the passion is for or against Russia.

The map to the right is a tactical that popped up mid day EST on Saturday. Expect it to already be outdated, but good for an early point in time reference.

It would appear the rumor Georgia is a paper tiger would be inaccurate, these guys are more like the Georgia bulldogs. As of the last few hours of this posting, there is quite a bit of action being reported around Tskhinvali, but conventional Russian military forces have apparently not entered the city. Snipers rule the streets, and vehicles on both sides take a pounding when visible. Russia does not appear to have sufficient infantry yet.

Both Interfax and independent sources have noted NATO style vehicles heading north. The Interfax report ran at 14:19 GMT. Anyone have any guesses?

Based on the piecemeal reporting we are finding, it appears the tactic sounds a bit like the way Bing West described the Marine assault on Fallujah. Essentially Russia is working to surround the city with armor and mechanized forces and intends to bring up the infantry (might be the paratroopers that were flown in) to enter the city to support the mechanized units already there. The 58th Army has been blooded, by some reports badly, it appears Georgia is having some success with a combination of irregular and conventional military forces. Both Georgia and Russia have used artillery on Tskhinvali and have blasted the city to hell. The civilian death toll there may be much higher than reported. Multiple sources confirm both sides are using heavy artillery on the city.

Over The Loons Nest also pulled the map below from Warfare.ru and gave some commentary.

According to this website there's a troop level of 185'000 Air Force troops and 322'000 Ground troops, plus some more logistics and other the Black Sea fleet in the North Caucasus Military District. Most divisions have taken part in the Chechen wars.

It is hard to tell how old this map is, but Google Earth does confirm troops in most of these locations as of the last satellite updates. For those who want to match with Google Earth and verify, turn the map of Georgia in Google Earth so that the Caspian Sea is straight up and down on the right side. It will like up and you can find most of the unit locations.

Finally we note that on late Saturday night there were still news reports that the Georgian air force is still flying sorties. We find that incredible! Georgia has a tiny air force, apparently Russia was not aware of all the locations where Georgia was launching its planes, and is reacting on day 3 to watching SU-25s bleed their ground forces.

Update: More on the cyber attacks here and here. We are treating this as confirmation and sourcing for the attacks for our data posted above.

Observing the Outbreak of War In Georgia

With the distraction of the Olympics, Georgia has apparently attempted to crack down on separatists in South Ossetia. Like all grand plans for war, the plan has not gone as expected. The swift Russian reaction by both air and ground implies surprise has not been achieved, if anything one might observe that Russian intelligence programs in Georgia is very healthy, and Russia is who achieved surprise.

Several blogs have offered both analysis and are tracking the reporting as the news breaks. This post by Thomas Barnett is a great early primer for many to shape a historical and strategic view, and Robert Farley is following the news as it flows in over at Lawyers, Guns, and Money. As of this writing the news report we recommend is the thorough analysis put out this afternoon by the New York Times, where this tidbit has slipped through.

Pentagon officials said late Friday that the Georgian government had officially requested assistance in airlifting home the approximately 2,000 Georgian troops now in Iraq. The request was under review, and standard procedures would indicate that the United States Government would honor the request, officials said.

This is the first sign of DoD mobilization for the military events unfolding in Georgia, and simply saying it out loud is sure to bring in a political perspective. Cutting through the spin, the Air Force has been asked and may be ordered to conduct a major airlift from Iraq to Georgia of all 2000 Georgian troops that have been part of the coalition forces in Iraq. That is certainly one twist in events we intend to keep an eye on. The politics of using an air base in Iraq to support an airlift into a war zone outside Iraq is the stuff the political spinners dream about.

Day two of the conflict featured a massive increase in Russian air power, including the use of Russian Strategic Bombers hitting Air Bases and other targets in Georgia. The number of sorties increased by about 4 fold, and we expect will continue to increase. We note this in the NY Times article, which implies escalation is likely.

On Saturday, Russia notified Western governments that it was moving elements of its Black Sea fleet to Ochamchire, a small port in the disputed enclave, a senior Western official said.

A senior Georgian security official said that Russian ships were moving toward Georgia’s Black Sea Cost in order to land ground troops, and that 12 Russian jets were bombing the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, another breakaway region that hugs the Black Sea.

Last night the Russian Air Force reportedly devastated the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti. Local language (unverified) internet reports suggest both the Slava class cruiser Moskva and the Kara class cruiser Kerch are part of Russian naval group that deployed, and the Kilo class submarine Alrosa was reportedly not in port. The number of and types of other Russian naval vessels has not been reported. Speculation by some local sources suggests an amphibious operation may be in the works. Specifically there are some local internet reports of activity among the three Ropucha class LSTs. We want to reiterate that these reports are unverified, but note that because of where these unofficial internet reports are coming from, they may be credible.

Several implications here. The use of air power in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia and if Amphibious forces are soon to put to sea, the implication is Russia may be looking to opening a second front. The movement of the Black Sea Fleet towards Georgia could be a tactical move to cut off supply to Georgia, and nothing says 'turn around' faster than a Kilo SSK guarding the port entrance. These types of major events give implication that Russia is moving towards a campaign of consolidation, rather than a peacekeeping action. The next few days will tell the story, but it looks like we may need to redraw some border lines in that region in the near future.

Georgia is not well known by Americans, and while we can hear the stories, read the history, and understand the events it is still very difficult to follow events of war in foreign lands. Luckily, it is easier to follow war from home in the 21st century than any other time in history, and all you need is a little advice. This is our advice.

Use the map in this post as a cross reference with Google Earth. Zoom in on Georgia and follow the press reports. While not all places are on the Google Earth map, most are, and one can use markers to track air strikes and where ground forces are based on press reports. Using about twenty press reports this morning we were able to track air strikes and where the ground combat is taking place, thus get a good feel for how early events are unfolding. These are amateur tools using open source media information, but if you were a professional, you would already have the tools to track the action.

We note that despite a number of bombings very near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, it is reported that the pipeline has 'miraculously' survived undamaged. Such miracles in war are hardly so accidental. As the pipeline is a strategically important aspect of the Georgian economy, but is also a very important part of the regional economy, it is just one more odd detail worth keeping an eye on.

While we are aware of US Navy activity in the Black Sea, we will let other news sources discuss specific forces in the region. It is enough to say the US Navy is there, with exactly the kind of capabilities one would want the US to have in a confusing, evolving war where one country may feel obligated to protect themselves from an attack by sea. Should Georgia open up with anti-ship missiles against Russian targets at sea, or if either side should engage in unrestricted
war at sea in the eastern Black Sea, the US Navy does not have the forces in the region yet to protect or support unarmed commercial vessels. Our advice to commercial shipping is to run west, those waters to the east are not safe.